Pudjiadi Prestige Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PUDP Stock  IDR 266.00  14.00  5.00%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 266.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 456.00. Pudjiadi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Pudjiadi Prestige simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk prices get older.

Pudjiadi Prestige Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 266.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.60, mean absolute percentage error of 248.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 456.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pudjiadi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pudjiadi Prestige's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pudjiadi Prestige Stock Forecast Pattern

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Pudjiadi Prestige Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pudjiadi Prestige's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pudjiadi Prestige's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 259.71 and 272.29, respectively. We have considered Pudjiadi Prestige's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
266.00
259.71
Downside
266.00
Expected Value
272.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pudjiadi Prestige stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pudjiadi Prestige stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7881
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1667
MADMean absolute deviation7.6
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0298
SAESum of the absolute errors456.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Pudjiadi Prestige observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Pudjiadi Prestige

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
273.71280.00286.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
224.08230.37308.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Pudjiadi Prestige

For every potential investor in Pudjiadi, whether a beginner or expert, Pudjiadi Prestige's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pudjiadi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pudjiadi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pudjiadi Prestige's price trends.

Pudjiadi Prestige Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pudjiadi Prestige stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pudjiadi Prestige could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pudjiadi Prestige by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pudjiadi Prestige's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pudjiadi Prestige's current price.

Pudjiadi Prestige Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pudjiadi Prestige stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pudjiadi Prestige shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pudjiadi Prestige stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pudjiadi Prestige Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pudjiadi Prestige Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pudjiadi Prestige's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pudjiadi Prestige's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pudjiadi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Pudjiadi Stock

Pudjiadi Prestige financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pudjiadi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pudjiadi with respect to the benefits of owning Pudjiadi Prestige security.