Qualcomm Incorporated Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| QCOM Stock | USD 153.04 1.48 0.96% |
Qualcomm Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Qualcomm Incorporated's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Qualcomm Incorporated fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Qualcomm Incorporated's share price is approaching 35 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Qualcomm Incorporated, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.294 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.2966 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.0092 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.3316 | Wall Street Target Price 191.3462 |
Using Qualcomm Incorporated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Qualcomm Incorporated from the perspective of Qualcomm Incorporated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Qualcomm Incorporated using Qualcomm Incorporated's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Qualcomm using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Qualcomm Incorporated's stock price.
Qualcomm Incorporated Short Interest
An investor who is long Qualcomm Incorporated may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Qualcomm Incorporated and may potentially protect profits, hedge Qualcomm Incorporated with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 160.3044 | Short Percent 0.031 | Short Ratio 3.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 30.8 M | 50 Day MA 170.9394 |
Qualcomm Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualcomm Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 152.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.02.Qualcomm Incorporated Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Qualcomm Incorporated's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Qualcomm. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Qualcomm can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Qualcomm Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Qualcomm Incorporated's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Qualcomm Incorporated.
Qualcomm Incorporated Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Qualcomm Incorporated's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Qualcomm Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Qualcomm Incorporated's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Qualcomm Incorporated stock will not fluctuate a lot when Qualcomm Incorporated's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualcomm Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 152.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.02. Qualcomm Incorporated after-hype prediction price | USD 154.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Qualcomm contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Qualcomm Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Qualcomm Incorporated trading at USD 153.04, that is roughly USD 0.0363 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Qualcomm Incorporated's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Qualcomm Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Qualcomm Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Qualcomm Incorporated's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Qualcomm Incorporated's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Qualcomm Incorporated stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Qualcomm Incorporated's open interest, investors have to compare it to Qualcomm Incorporated's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Qualcomm Incorporated is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Qualcomm. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Qualcomm Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Qualcomm price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Qualcomm using various technical indicators. When you analyze Qualcomm charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Qualcomm Incorporated Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualcomm Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 152.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.68, mean absolute percentage error of 11.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 158.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Qualcomm Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Qualcomm Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Qualcomm Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Qualcomm Incorporated | Qualcomm Incorporated Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Qualcomm Incorporated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Qualcomm Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Qualcomm Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 150.38 and 154.19, respectively. We have considered Qualcomm Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Qualcomm Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Qualcomm Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2732 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6783 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 158.0171 |
Predictive Modules for Qualcomm Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qualcomm Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Qualcomm Incorporated After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Qualcomm Incorporated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Qualcomm Incorporated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Qualcomm Incorporated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Qualcomm Incorporated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Qualcomm Incorporated's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Qualcomm Incorporated's historical news coverage. Qualcomm Incorporated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 152.21 and 156.01, respectively. We have considered Qualcomm Incorporated's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Qualcomm Incorporated is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Qualcomm Incorporated is based on 3 months time horizon.
Qualcomm Incorporated Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Qualcomm Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Qualcomm Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Qualcomm Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.90 | 0.45 | 0.18 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
153.04 | 154.11 | 0.27 |
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Qualcomm Incorporated Hype Timeline
Qualcomm Incorporated is at this time traded for 153.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Qualcomm is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 154.11. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 96.45%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Qualcomm Incorporated is about 244.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 152.86. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.52. Qualcomm Incorporated recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.02. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of March 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 16th of August 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated to cross-verify your projections.Qualcomm Incorporated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Qualcomm Incorporated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Qualcomm Incorporated's future price movements. Getting to know how Qualcomm Incorporated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Qualcomm Incorporated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMAT | Applied Materials | 2.13 | 9 per month | 2.06 | 0.18 | 5.00 | (3.61) | 10.80 | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 4.20 | 7 per month | 2.49 | 0.19 | 6.26 | (4.85) | 12.15 | |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | (3.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 4.63 | (4.71) | 10.33 | |
| UBER | Uber Technologies | (0.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.60 | (3.82) | 10.23 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | 3.63 | 10 per month | 2.21 | 0.15 | 4.89 | (4.19) | 12.91 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | (5.81) | 41 per month | 1.57 | 0.04 | 3.96 | (2.72) | 11.75 | |
| INTC | Intel | 1.26 | 3 per month | 4.00 | 0.04 | 8.65 | (5.72) | 28.75 | |
| ANET | Arista Networks | 1.03 | 6 per month | 3.09 | (0.02) | 5.22 | (4.56) | 12.76 | |
| INTU | Intuit Inc | (11.20) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.38 | (3.37) | 10.42 | |
| SONY | Sony Group Corp | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.31 | (2.80) | 7.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Qualcomm Incorporated
For every potential investor in Qualcomm, whether a beginner or expert, Qualcomm Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Qualcomm Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Qualcomm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Qualcomm Incorporated's price trends.Qualcomm Incorporated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Qualcomm Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Qualcomm Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Qualcomm Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Qualcomm Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Qualcomm Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Qualcomm Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Qualcomm Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 216814.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.36) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 154.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 154.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.40) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.48) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.42 |
Qualcomm Incorporated Risk Indicators
The analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Qualcomm Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qualcomm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Qualcomm Incorporated
The number of cover stories for Qualcomm Incorporated depends on current market conditions and Qualcomm Incorporated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Qualcomm Incorporated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Qualcomm Incorporated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Qualcomm Incorporated Short Properties
Qualcomm Incorporated's future price predictability will typically decrease when Qualcomm Incorporated's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Qualcomm Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Qualcomm Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Qualcomm Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Qualcomm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Qualcomm Incorporated guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Qualcomm Incorporated. If investors know Qualcomm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Qualcomm Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.294 | Dividend Share 3.48 | Earnings Share 5.02 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.1 |
The market value of Qualcomm Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Qualcomm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Qualcomm Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Qualcomm Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Qualcomm Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Qualcomm Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Qualcomm Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Qualcomm Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Qualcomm Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.