Quidel Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| QDEL Stock | USD 26.79 0.49 1.80% |
Quidel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Quidel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Quidel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Quidel fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Quidel's share price is approaching 43 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Quidel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9224 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0785 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5065 | Wall Street Target Price 38.3333 |
Using Quidel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Quidel from the perspective of Quidel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Quidel Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Quidel on the next trading day is expected to be 32.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.43.Quidel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Quidel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Quidel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Quidel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Quidel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Quidel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Quidel.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Quidel on the next trading day is expected to be 32.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.43. Quidel after-hype prediction price | USD 26.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quidel to cross-verify your projections. Quidel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Quidel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Quidel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Quidel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Quidel Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Quidel on the next trading day is expected to be 32.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14, mean absolute percentage error of 6.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Quidel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Quidel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Quidel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Quidel | Quidel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Quidel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Quidel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Quidel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.55 and 37.61, respectively. We have considered Quidel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Quidel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Quidel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0455 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1381 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0807 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 130.427 |
Predictive Modules for Quidel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quidel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Quidel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Quidel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Quidel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Quidel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Quidel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Quidel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Quidel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Quidel's historical news coverage. Quidel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.76 and 31.82, respectively. We have considered Quidel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Quidel is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Quidel is based on 3 months time horizon.
Quidel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Quidel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Quidel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Quidel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 5.03 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
26.79 | 26.79 | 0.00 |
|
Quidel Hype Timeline
Quidel is at this time traded for 26.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Quidel is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Quidel is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.79. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.91. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Quidel recorded a loss per share of 17.41. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of October 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quidel to cross-verify your projections.Quidel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Quidel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Quidel's future price movements. Getting to know how Quidel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Quidel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LMAT | LeMaitre Vascular | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.17 | (2.30) | 8.28 | |
| VRDN | Viridian Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.20 | 5.57 | (2.19) | 15.86 | |
| ATRC | AtriCure | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.96 | 0.03 | 4.34 | (4.08) | 18.00 | |
| TWST | Twist Bioscience Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.10 | 0.11 | 7.37 | (4.95) | 16.27 | |
| GPCR | Structure Therapeutics American | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.90 | 0.15 | 8.23 | (5.94) | 110.34 | |
| QURE | Uniqure NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.15 | (10.75) | 49.34 | |
| XRAY | Dentsply Sirona | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.72 | (0.02) | 4.84 | (2.96) | 13.76 | |
| NHC | National HealthCare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | 0.13 | 2.84 | (2.20) | 9.28 | |
| EWTX | Edgewise Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.23 | 0.14 | 12.91 | (5.57) | 38.85 | |
| AZTA | Azenta Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.76 | 0.13 | 3.81 | (2.89) | 22.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Quidel
For every potential investor in Quidel, whether a beginner or expert, Quidel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Quidel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Quidel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Quidel's price trends.Quidel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Quidel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Quidel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Quidel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Quidel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Quidel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Quidel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Quidel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Quidel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Quidel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Quidel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Quidel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting quidel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.92 | |||
| Variance | 24.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Quidel
The number of cover stories for Quidel depends on current market conditions and Quidel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Quidel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Quidel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Quidel Short Properties
Quidel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Quidel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Quidel often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Quidel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Quidel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quidel to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Quidel Stock please use our How to buy in Quidel Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Quidel. Anticipated expansion of Quidel directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Quidel assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | Earnings Share (17.41) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Quidel using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Quidel's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Quidel's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Quidel's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Quidel should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Quidel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.