Quaint Oak OTC Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

QNTO Stock  USD 12.16  0.35  2.96%   
Quaint OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Quaint Oak's share price is above 70 as of today indicating that the otc stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Quaint, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 77

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Quaint Oak Bancorp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Quaint Oak shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Quaint Oak's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Quaint Oak and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Quaint Oak's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Quaint Oak Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Quaint Oak based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Quaint Oak hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Quaint Oak Bancorp from the perspective of Quaint Oak response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Quaint Oak Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.57.

Quaint Oak after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.16  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quaint Oak to cross-verify your projections.

Quaint Oak Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Quaint price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Quaint using various technical indicators. When you analyze Quaint charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Quaint Oak - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Quaint Oak prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Quaint Oak price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Quaint Oak Bancorp.

Quaint Oak Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Quaint Oak Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Quaint OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Quaint Oak's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Quaint Oak OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Quaint Oak  Quaint Oak Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Quaint Oak Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Quaint Oak's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Quaint Oak's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.32 and 14.06, respectively. We have considered Quaint Oak's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.16
12.19
Expected Value
14.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Quaint Oak otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Quaint Oak otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0235
MADMean absolute deviation0.1095
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0104
SAESum of the absolute errors6.57
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Quaint Oak observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Quaint Oak Bancorp observations.

Predictive Modules for Quaint Oak

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quaint Oak Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Quaint Oak's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.2912.1614.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.4811.3513.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.0611.4611.87
Details

Quaint Oak After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Quaint Oak at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Quaint Oak or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Quaint Oak, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Quaint Oak Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Quaint Oak's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Quaint Oak's historical news coverage. Quaint Oak's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.29 and 14.03, respectively. We have considered Quaint Oak's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.16
12.16
After-hype Price
14.03
Upside
Quaint Oak is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Quaint Oak Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Quaint Oak OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Quaint Oak is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Quaint Oak backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Quaint Oak, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.53 
1.87
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.16
12.16
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Quaint Oak Hype Timeline

Quaint Oak Bancorp is at this time traded for 12.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Quaint is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.53%. %. The volatility of related hype on Quaint Oak is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.16. About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.12. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Quaint Oak Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 20th of January 2023. The entity had 2:1 split on the 9th of September 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quaint Oak to cross-verify your projections.

Quaint Oak Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Quaint Oak's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Quaint Oak's future price movements. Getting to know how Quaint Oak's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Quaint Oak may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SSBPSSB Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.40  0.06  3.39 (0.99) 13.73 
EFSGEnterprise Financial Services 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.09  0.27  0.00  24.02 
HVLMHuron Valley Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 0.00  0.00  2.01 
APLOApollo Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.05  1.63 (1.24) 14.55 
CNAFCommercial National Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.24 (0.06) 1.96 (2.29) 5.73 
RBNKRiverBank Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.21  4.00  0.00  9.97 
WOBKWoodsboro Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.09  2.78 (0.38) 13.20 
FRFCFirst Robinson Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.49  0.19  3.15 (0.64) 9.68 
BKUTKBank Utica Ny 0.00 0 per month 1.35  0.02  2.51 (2.83) 8.53 
LKSBLakeside Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 5.42 (4.00) 28.20 

Other Forecasting Options for Quaint Oak

For every potential investor in Quaint, whether a beginner or expert, Quaint Oak's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Quaint OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Quaint. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Quaint Oak's price trends.

Quaint Oak Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Quaint Oak otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Quaint Oak could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Quaint Oak by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Quaint Oak Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Quaint Oak otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Quaint Oak shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Quaint Oak otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Quaint Oak Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Quaint Oak Risk Indicators

The analysis of Quaint Oak's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Quaint Oak's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting quaint otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Quaint Oak

The number of cover stories for Quaint Oak depends on current market conditions and Quaint Oak's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Quaint Oak is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Quaint Oak's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Quaint Oak Short Properties

Quaint Oak's future price predictability will typically decrease when Quaint Oak's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Quaint Oak Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Quaint Oak's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Quaint Oak's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.1 M
Short Long Term Debt97.7 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate0.52
Shares Float1.3 M

Other Information on Investing in Quaint OTC Stock

Quaint Oak financial ratios help investors to determine whether Quaint OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Quaint with respect to the benefits of owning Quaint Oak security.