Refine Group Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| REFINE Stock | 0.18 0.01 5.26% |
Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Refine Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Refine Group AB from the perspective of Refine Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Refine Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.78. Refine Group after-hype prediction price | SEK 0.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Refine |
Refine Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Refine price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Refine using various technical indicators. When you analyze Refine charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Refine Group Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Refine Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Refine Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Refine Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Refine Group Stock Forecast Pattern
Refine Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Refine Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Refine Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 9.52, respectively. We have considered Refine Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Refine Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Refine Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 4.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0132 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0646 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7803 |
Predictive Modules for Refine Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Refine Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Refine Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Refine Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Refine Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Refine Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Refine Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Refine Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Refine Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Refine Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 9.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.18 | 0.18 | 0.00 |
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Refine Group Hype Timeline
Refine Group AB is at this time traded for 0.18on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Refine is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Refine Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.18. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.Refine Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Refine Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Refine Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Refine Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Refine Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NILS | Nilsson Special Vehicles | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.83 | (6.16) | 25.38 | |
| BUY | Sweden BuyersClub AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.44 | 0.15 | 6.67 | (4.85) | 18.59 | |
| CLEMO | Clean Motion AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 8.33 | (7.69) | 33.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Refine Group
For every potential investor in Refine, whether a beginner or expert, Refine Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Refine Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Refine. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Refine Group's price trends.Refine Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Refine Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Refine Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Refine Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Refine Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Refine Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Refine Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Refine Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Refine Group AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Refine Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Refine Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Refine Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting refine stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.32 | |||
| Variance | 86.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 117.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 55.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (11.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Refine Group
The number of cover stories for Refine Group depends on current market conditions and Refine Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Refine Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Refine Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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