RGC Resources Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| RGCO Stock | USD 21.24 0.13 0.61% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of RGC Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 21.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.23. RGC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although RGC Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of RGC Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of RGC Resources fundamentals over time.
RGC |
RGC Resources 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of RGC Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 21.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RGC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RGC Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RGC Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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RGC Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RGC Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RGC Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.20 and 24.06, respectively. We have considered RGC Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RGC Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RGC Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 80.9239 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0247 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5665 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0266 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.2285 |
Predictive Modules for RGC Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RGC Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of RGC Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for RGC Resources
For every potential investor in RGC, whether a beginner or expert, RGC Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RGC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RGC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RGC Resources' price trends.RGC Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RGC Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RGC Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RGC Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RGC Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of RGC Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of RGC Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RGC Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RGC Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RGC Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RGC Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RGC Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
RGC Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of RGC Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RGC Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rgc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.97 | |||
| Variance | 8.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with RGC Resources
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if RGC Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in RGC Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to RGC Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace RGC Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back RGC Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling RGC Resources to buy it.
The correlation of RGC Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as RGC Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if RGC Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for RGC Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RGC Resources to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in RGC Stock, please use our How to Invest in RGC Resources guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Gas Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RGC Resources. If investors know RGC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RGC Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Earnings Share 1.16 | Revenue Per Share 8.337 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 | Return On Assets 0.0342 |
The market value of RGC Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RGC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RGC Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RGC Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RGC Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RGC Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RGC Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if RGC Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RGC Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.