Chemical Works Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| RICHTER Stock | 11,100 220.00 2.02% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Chemical Works hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chemical Works of from the perspective of Chemical Works response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chemical Works of on the next trading day is expected to be 11,100 with a mean absolute deviation of 113.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,710. Chemical Works after-hype prediction price | HUF 11100.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Chemical |
Chemical Works Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chemical price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chemical using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chemical charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chemical Works Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chemical Works of on the next trading day is expected to be 11,100 with a mean absolute deviation of 113.73, mean absolute percentage error of 22,007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,710.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chemical Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chemical Works' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chemical Works Stock Forecast Pattern
Chemical Works Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chemical Works' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chemical Works' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11,099 and 11,101, respectively. We have considered Chemical Works' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chemical Works stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chemical Works stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.4339 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -19.1525 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 113.7288 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6710.0 |
Predictive Modules for Chemical Works
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chemical Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chemical Works' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Chemical Works Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Chemical Works at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chemical Works or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chemical Works, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chemical Works Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chemical Works is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chemical Works backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chemical Works, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11,100 | 11,100 | 0.00 |
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Chemical Works Hype Timeline
Chemical Works is at this time traded for 11,100on Budapest Stock Exchange of Hungary. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Chemical is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Chemical Works is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11,100. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in poverty.Chemical Works Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chemical Works' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chemical Works' future price movements. Getting to know how Chemical Works' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chemical Works may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GRNT | GRANIT Bank PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.61 | (2.55) | 8.88 | |
| NUTEX | Nutex Investments PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.21 | (3.09) | 11.49 | |
| COMMB | Commerzbank AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.59 | (4.37) | 10.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chemical Works
For every potential investor in Chemical, whether a beginner or expert, Chemical Works' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chemical Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chemical. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chemical Works' price trends.Chemical Works Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chemical Works stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chemical Works could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chemical Works by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chemical Works Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chemical Works stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chemical Works shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chemical Works stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chemical Works of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0252 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7857 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10990.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11026.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 280.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 220.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 220.0 |
Chemical Works Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chemical Works' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chemical Works' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chemical stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9851 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chemical Works
The number of cover stories for Chemical Works depends on current market conditions and Chemical Works' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chemical Works is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chemical Works' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Chemical Stock Analysis
When running Chemical Works' price analysis, check to measure Chemical Works' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chemical Works is operating at the current time. Most of Chemical Works' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chemical Works' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chemical Works' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chemical Works to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.