Chemical Works Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RICHTER Stock   11,100  220.00  2.02%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chemical Works of on the next trading day is expected to be 11,207 with a mean absolute deviation of 104.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,193. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Chemical Works' stock prices and determine the direction of Chemical Works of's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Chemical Works' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in poverty. At the present time the value of rsi of Chemical Works' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Chemical Works' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Chemical Works and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Chemical Works' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Chemical Works of, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Chemical Works hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chemical Works of from the perspective of Chemical Works response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chemical Works of on the next trading day is expected to be 11,207 with a mean absolute deviation of 104.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,193.

Chemical Works after-hype prediction price

    
  HUF 11100.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in poverty.

Chemical Works Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Chemical price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chemical using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chemical charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Chemical Works - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Chemical Works prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Chemical Works price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Chemical Works.

Chemical Works Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chemical Works of on the next trading day is expected to be 11,207 with a mean absolute deviation of 104.97, mean absolute percentage error of 19,468, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,193.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chemical Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chemical Works' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chemical Works Stock Forecast Pattern

Chemical Works Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chemical Works' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chemical Works' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11,205 and 11,208, respectively. We have considered Chemical Works' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11,100
11,205
Downside
11,207
Expected Value
11,208
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chemical Works stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chemical Works stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -27.7402
MADMean absolute deviation104.9697
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0104
SAESum of the absolute errors6193.2124
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Chemical Works observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Chemical Works of observations.

Predictive Modules for Chemical Works

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chemical Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chemical Works' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Chemical Works Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of Chemical Works at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chemical Works or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chemical Works, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Chemical Works Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chemical Works is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chemical Works backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chemical Works, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
1.23
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11,100
11,100
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Chemical Works Hype Timeline

Chemical Works is at this time traded for 11,100on Budapest Stock Exchange of Hungary. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Chemical is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Chemical Works is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11,100. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in poverty.

Chemical Works Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Chemical Works' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chemical Works' future price movements. Getting to know how Chemical Works' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chemical Works may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Chemical Works

For every potential investor in Chemical, whether a beginner or expert, Chemical Works' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chemical Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chemical. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chemical Works' price trends.

Chemical Works Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chemical Works stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chemical Works could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chemical Works by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Chemical Works Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chemical Works stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chemical Works shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chemical Works stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chemical Works of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Chemical Works Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chemical Works' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chemical Works' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chemical stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Chemical Works

The number of cover stories for Chemical Works depends on current market conditions and Chemical Works' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chemical Works is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chemical Works' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Chemical Stock Analysis

When running Chemical Works' price analysis, check to measure Chemical Works' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chemical Works is operating at the current time. Most of Chemical Works' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chemical Works' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chemical Works' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chemical Works to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.