B Riley Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| RILYK Stock | USD 24.90 0.05 0.20% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of B Riley Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 25.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.53. RILYK Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of B Riley's stock price is about 65 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling RILYK, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using B Riley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of B Riley Financial from the perspective of B Riley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of B Riley Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 25.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.53. B Riley after-hype prediction price | USD 24.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of B Riley to cross-verify your projections. B Riley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RILYK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RILYK using various technical indicators. When you analyze RILYK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
B Riley Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of B Riley Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 25.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RILYK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that B Riley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
B Riley Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest B Riley | B Riley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
B Riley Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting B Riley's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. B Riley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.55 and 25.78, respectively. We have considered B Riley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of B Riley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent B Riley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7667 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0906 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.5267 |
Predictive Modules for B Riley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as B Riley Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of B Riley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
B Riley After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of B Riley at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in B Riley or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of B Riley, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
B Riley Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting B Riley's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on B Riley's historical news coverage. B Riley's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.29 and 25.51, respectively. We have considered B Riley's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
B Riley is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of B Riley Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
B Riley Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as B Riley is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading B Riley backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with B Riley, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.90 | 24.90 | 0.00 |
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B Riley Hype Timeline
B Riley Financial is at this time traded for 24.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. RILYK is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on B Riley is about 30500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.90. The company last dividend was issued on the 31st of January 2026. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of B Riley to cross-verify your projections.B Riley Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to B Riley's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict B Riley's future price movements. Getting to know how B Riley's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how B Riley may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ETHM | Dynamix | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.57) | 0.29 | (0.39) | 1.16 | |
| RANG | Range Capital Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.68) | 0.19 | (0.28) | 0.96 | |
| NTWO | Newbury Street II | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.64) | 0.29 | (0.19) | 0.86 | |
| SVCC | Stellar V Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.54) | 0.29 | (0.29) | 1.25 | |
| PMTS | CPI Card Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.06 | (5.35) | 32.85 | |
| COOT | Australian Oilseeds Holdings | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 8.40 | (10.53) | 30.34 | |
| CPSS | Consumer Portfolio Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.53 | (0.02) | 4.04 | (3.94) | 13.46 | |
| SOCA | Solarius Capital Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.80) | 0.20 | (0.10) | 0.79 | |
| DRDB | Roman DBDR Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.15 | (0.42) | 0.38 | (0.29) | 1.24 | |
| SWKH | SWK Holdings Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.01 | 1.59 | (1.05) | 9.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for B Riley
For every potential investor in RILYK, whether a beginner or expert, B Riley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RILYK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RILYK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying B Riley's price trends.B Riley Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with B Riley stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of B Riley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing B Riley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
B Riley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how B Riley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading B Riley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying B Riley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify B Riley Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
B Riley Risk Indicators
The analysis of B Riley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in B Riley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rilyk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4352 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.534 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6111 | |||
| Variance | 0.3734 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4211 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2852 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for B Riley
The number of cover stories for B Riley depends on current market conditions and B Riley's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that B Riley is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about B Riley's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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B Riley Short Properties
B Riley's future price predictability will typically decrease when B Riley's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of B Riley Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential B Riley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. B Riley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 154.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of B Riley to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of B Riley. If investors know RILYK will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about B Riley listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of B Riley Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RILYK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of B Riley's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is B Riley's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because B Riley's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect B Riley's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between B Riley's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if B Riley is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, B Riley's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.