Ralph Lauren Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| RL Stock | USD 372.13 -0.02 -0.01% |
Ralph Lauren's Simple Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. When MAPE exceeds 10%, the model's short-term predictive value is significantly reduced. The Simple Regression model projects Ralph Lauren at 364.52 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Simple Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Regression model forecasts Ralph Lauren at 364.52 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 14.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 862.15 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Ralph Lauren's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ralph Lauren | Ralph Lauren Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Ralph Lauren's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The current forecast range spans downside near 362.16 and upside near 366.87. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Regression model's error metrics for Ralph Lauren stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.7185 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 14.1336 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0397 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 862.1503 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ralph Lauren
Volume-weighted price analysis for Ralph Lauren Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in Ralph Lauren momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Ralph Lauren's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Ralph Lauren Stock price action.Ralph Lauren Related Equities
These stocks are related to Ralph Lauren within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Market cap and total value checks frame Ralph Lauren's size within the competitive field. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ralph Lauren Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Ralph Lauren Corp, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Ralph Lauren. These metrics are particularly useful when Ralph Lauren stock shows divergence from broader market trends. These metrics provide additional context for comparing intraday conviction with broader price movement in Ralph Lauren.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 372.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 372.13 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.51 |
Ralph Lauren Risk Indicators
Analyzing Ralph Lauren's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ralph lauren stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Ralph Lauren. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for Ralph Lauren than full standard deviation. The risk-return trade-off for ralph lauren stock becomes clearer when downside and total variance are viewed together.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Variance | 5.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Ralph Lauren Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Ralph Lauren reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 64 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.08 billion |