RPM International Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RPM Stock | USD 116.94 1.85 1.61% |
RPM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although RPM International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of RPM International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of RPM International fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of RPM International's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.2702 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.9965 | Wall Street Target Price 127.3571 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.4119 |
Using RPM International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RPM International from the perspective of RPM International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards RPM International using RPM International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards RPM using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of RPM International's stock price.
RPM International Short Interest
An investor who is long RPM International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about RPM International and may potentially protect profits, hedge RPM International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 112.8689 | Short Percent 0.0229 | Short Ratio 1.7 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 107.7222 |
RPM Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RPM International on the next trading day is expected to be 116.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.74.RPM International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to RPM International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in RPM. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding RPM can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around RPM International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of RPM International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about RPM International.
RPM International Implied Volatility | 0.27 |
RPM International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of RPM International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if RPM International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that RPM International stock will not fluctuate a lot when RPM International's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RPM International on the next trading day is expected to be 116.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.74. RPM International after-hype prediction price | USD 117.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RPM International to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current RPM contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that RPM International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0169% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With RPM International trading at USD 116.94, that is roughly USD 0.0197 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating RPM International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring RPM International options at the current volatility level of 0.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 RPM Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast RPM International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in RPM International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for RPM International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current RPM International's open interest, investors have to compare it to RPM International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of RPM International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in RPM. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
RPM International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RPM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RPM using various technical indicators. When you analyze RPM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RPM International Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RPM International on the next trading day is expected to be 116.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27, mean absolute percentage error of 2.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RPM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RPM International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RPM International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RPM International | RPM International Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
RPM International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RPM International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RPM International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 115.37 and 118.53, respectively. We have considered RPM International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RPM International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RPM International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1593 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2668 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 74.74 |
Predictive Modules for RPM International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RPM International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RPM International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RPM International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RPM International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RPM International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RPM International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RPM International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RPM International's historical news coverage. RPM International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 115.48 and 118.64, respectively. We have considered RPM International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RPM International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RPM International is based on 3 months time horizon.
RPM International Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RPM International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RPM International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RPM International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.58 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
116.94 | 117.06 | 0.10 |
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RPM International Hype Timeline
On the 8th of February RPM International is traded for 116.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. RPM is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 117.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 109.72%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on RPM International is about 155.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 116.79. The company reported the last year's revenue of 7.37 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 690.33 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.12 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RPM International to cross-verify your projections.RPM International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RPM International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RPM International's future price movements. Getting to know how RPM International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RPM International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SQM | Sociedad Quimica y | 2.68 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.17 | 6.23 | (4.33) | 15.98 | |
| LYB | LyondellBasell Industries NV | (2.20) | 6 per month | 2.32 | 0.09 | 6.08 | (3.96) | 12.48 | |
| DD | Dupont De Nemours | 0.37 | 11 per month | 1.08 | 0.20 | 3.82 | (2.10) | 13.36 | |
| RS | Reliance Steel Aluminum | 3.06 | 10 per month | 0.60 | 0.20 | 3.17 | (1.55) | 5.44 | |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.97 | 0.04 | 3.53 | (3.57) | 8.59 | |
| CX | Cemex SAB de | 0.14 | 12 per month | 1.65 | 0.11 | 3.03 | (2.69) | 11.52 | |
| ALB | Albemarle Corp | (10.88) | 10 per month | 3.30 | 0.21 | 6.48 | (6.18) | 15.45 | |
| IFF | International Flavors Fragrances | (0.20) | 7 per month | 1.35 | 0.12 | 4.02 | (2.30) | 8.02 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | 1.98 | 10 per month | 3.51 | 0.10 | 5.40 | (5.20) | 18.61 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | (4.99) | 11 per month | 3.41 | 0.17 | 7.44 | (5.69) | 24.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for RPM International
For every potential investor in RPM, whether a beginner or expert, RPM International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RPM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RPM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RPM International's price trends.RPM International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RPM International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RPM International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RPM International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RPM International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RPM International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RPM International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RPM International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RPM International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
RPM International Risk Indicators
The analysis of RPM International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RPM International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rpm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Variance | 2.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RPM International
The number of cover stories for RPM International depends on current market conditions and RPM International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RPM International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RPM International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RPM International Short Properties
RPM International's future price predictability will typically decrease when RPM International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RPM International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RPM International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RPM International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 302.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RPM International to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in RPM Stock, please use our How to Invest in RPM International guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Will Specialty Chemicals sector continue expanding? Could RPM diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RPM International. Anticipated expansion of RPM directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every RPM International data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Dividend Share 2.07 | Earnings Share 5.19 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.035 |
The market value of RPM International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RPM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RPM International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RPM International's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because RPM International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RPM International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between RPM International's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding RPM International should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, RPM International's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.