Revolution Medicines Stock Forward View
| RVMD Stock | USD 96.51 0.54 0.56% |
Revolution Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Revolution Medicines stock prices and determine the direction of Revolution Medicines's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Revolution Medicines' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the rsi of Revolution Medicines' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.52) | EPS Estimate Current Year (5.54) | EPS Estimate Next Year (6.54) | Wall Street Target Price 117.2105 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.41) |
Using Revolution Medicines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Revolution Medicines from the perspective of Revolution Medicines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Revolution Medicines using Revolution Medicines' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Revolution using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Revolution Medicines' stock price.
Revolution Medicines Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Revolution Medicines' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Revolution. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Revolution Medicines stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 54.6858 | Short Percent 0.0781 | Short Ratio 3.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.3 M | 50 Day MA 89.4526 |
Revolution Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Revolution Medicines on the next trading day is expected to be 74.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 340.72.Revolution Medicines Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Revolution Medicines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Revolution. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Revolution can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Revolution Medicines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Revolution Medicines' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Revolution Medicines.
Revolution Medicines Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Revolution Medicines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Revolution Medicines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Revolution Medicines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Revolution Medicines stock will not fluctuate a lot when Revolution Medicines' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Revolution Medicines on the next trading day is expected to be 74.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 340.72. Revolution Medicines after-hype prediction price | USD 97.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Revolution | Build AI portfolio with Revolution Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Revolution contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Revolution Medicines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Revolution Medicines trading at USD 96.51, that is roughly USD 0.0368 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Revolution Medicines' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Revolution Medicines options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Revolution Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Revolution Medicines' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Revolution Medicines' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Revolution Medicines stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Revolution Medicines' open interest, investors have to compare it to Revolution Medicines' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Revolution Medicines is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Revolution. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Revolution Medicines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Revolution price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Revolution using various technical indicators. When you analyze Revolution charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Revolution Medicines Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Revolution Medicines' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter 402.4 M | Current Value 217.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 176.4 M |
Revolution Medicines Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Revolution Medicines on the next trading day is expected to be 74.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.50, mean absolute percentage error of 53.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 340.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Revolution Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Revolution Medicines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Revolution Medicines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Revolution Medicines | Revolution Medicines Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Revolution Medicines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Revolution Medicines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Revolution Medicines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.72 and 79.44, respectively. We have considered Revolution Medicines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Revolution Medicines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Revolution Medicines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.9283 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.4955 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0603 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 340.718 |
Predictive Modules for Revolution Medicines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Revolution Medicines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Revolution Medicines After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Revolution Medicines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Revolution Medicines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Revolution Medicines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Revolution Medicines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Revolution Medicines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Revolution Medicines' historical news coverage. Revolution Medicines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.87 and 102.51, respectively. We have considered Revolution Medicines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Revolution Medicines is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Revolution Medicines is based on 3 months time horizon.
Revolution Medicines Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Revolution Medicines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Revolution Medicines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Revolution Medicines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.88 | 4.86 | 1.23 | 0.33 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
96.51 | 97.69 | 1.22 |
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Revolution Medicines Hype Timeline
Revolution Medicines is at this time traded for 96.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.33. Revolution is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 97.69 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.22%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.88%. The volatility of related hype on Revolution Medicines is about 1289.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 96.18. Net Loss for the year was (600.09 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (880.48 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Revolution Medicines to cross-verify your projections.Revolution Medicines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Revolution Medicines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Revolution Medicines' future price movements. Getting to know how Revolution Medicines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Revolution Medicines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BBIO | BridgeBio Pharma | (1.38) | 11 per month | 1.66 | 0.10 | 4.23 | (2.55) | 12.16 | |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals | (1.42) | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0.08 | 3.19 | (2.67) | 8.08 | |
| EXEL | Exelixis | 1.09 | 11 per month | 1.69 | 0.04 | 4.06 | (2.93) | 11.45 | |
| MRNA | Moderna | (1.49) | 8 per month | 4.04 | 0.14 | 9.21 | (7.01) | 23.11 | |
| BMRN | Biomarin Pharmaceutical | 0.44 | 11 per month | 1.47 | 0.05 | 3.20 | (2.32) | 22.06 | |
| SMMT | Summit Therapeutics PLC | (0.65) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.41 | (5.97) | 23.61 | |
| ASND | Ascendis Pharma AS | 2.76 | 10 per month | 2.41 | 0.03 | 4.74 | (4.38) | 12.80 | |
| ROIV | Roivant Sciences | 0.14 | 10 per month | 1.58 | 0.05 | 3.56 | (2.84) | 9.44 | |
| RNA | Avidity Biosciences | 0.08 | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.38 | (0.29) | 1.75 | |
| MDGL | Madrigal Pharmaceuticals | (3.34) | 11 per month | 2.06 | 0.05 | 7.29 | (3.26) | 16.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Revolution Medicines
For every potential investor in Revolution, whether a beginner or expert, Revolution Medicines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Revolution Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Revolution. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Revolution Medicines' price trends.Revolution Medicines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Revolution Medicines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Revolution Medicines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Revolution Medicines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Revolution Medicines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Revolution Medicines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Revolution Medicines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Revolution Medicines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Revolution Medicines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 102228.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.133 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 95.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 95.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.73 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.54 |
Revolution Medicines Risk Indicators
The analysis of Revolution Medicines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Revolution Medicines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting revolution stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.65 | |||
| Variance | 21.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Revolution Medicines
The number of cover stories for Revolution Medicines depends on current market conditions and Revolution Medicines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Revolution Medicines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Revolution Medicines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Revolution Medicines Short Properties
Revolution Medicines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Revolution Medicines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Revolution Medicines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Revolution Medicines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Revolution Medicines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 167.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Revolution Medicines to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Revolution Stock refer to our How to Trade Revolution Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Revolution diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Revolution Medicines. Anticipated expansion of Revolution directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Revolution Medicines data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (5.19) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.95) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Revolution Medicines's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Revolution's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Revolution Medicines' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Revolution Medicines' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Revolution Medicines' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Revolution Medicines should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Revolution Medicines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.