Redwood Capital OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

RWCB Stock  USD 29.25  0.15  0.52%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Redwood Capital Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 29.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.95. Redwood OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Redwood Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Redwood Capital Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Redwood Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Redwood Capital's share price is above 70 at the present time indicating that the otc stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Redwood, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 74

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Redwood Capital Bancorp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Redwood Capital shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Redwood Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Redwood Capital and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Redwood Capital's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Redwood Capital Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Redwood Capital based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Redwood Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Redwood Capital Bancorp from the perspective of Redwood Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Redwood Capital Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 29.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.95.

Redwood Capital after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 29.25  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Redwood Capital to cross-verify your projections.

Redwood Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Redwood price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Redwood using various technical indicators. When you analyze Redwood charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Redwood Capital simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Redwood Capital Bancorp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Redwood Capital Bancorp prices get older.

Redwood Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Redwood Capital Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 29.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Redwood OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Redwood Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Redwood Capital OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Redwood CapitalRedwood Capital Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Redwood Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Redwood Capital's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Redwood Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.46 and 30.04, respectively. We have considered Redwood Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
29.25
29.25
Expected Value
30.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Redwood Capital otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Redwood Capital otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1248
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0408
MADMean absolute deviation0.0811
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0029
SAESum of the absolute errors4.95
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Redwood Capital Bancorp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Redwood Capital observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Redwood Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Redwood Capital Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Redwood Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.4629.2530.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.3333.8334.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
28.0828.7329.38
Details

Redwood Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Redwood Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Redwood Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Redwood Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Redwood Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Redwood Capital's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Redwood Capital's historical news coverage. Redwood Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.46 and 30.04, respectively. We have considered Redwood Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
29.25
29.25
After-hype Price
30.04
Upside
Redwood Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Redwood Capital Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Redwood Capital OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Redwood Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Redwood Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Redwood Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15 
0.79
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
29.25
29.25
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Redwood Capital Hype Timeline

Redwood Capital Bancorp is at this time traded for 29.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Redwood is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Redwood Capital is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.25. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.91. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Redwood Capital Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 27th of January 2023. The entity had 3:2 split on the 30th of August 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Redwood Capital to cross-verify your projections.

Redwood Capital Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Redwood Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Redwood Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Redwood Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Redwood Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CCBCChino Commercial Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 2.15 (1.21) 6.87 
FRSBFirst Resource Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.11  2.51 (0.54) 5.49 
GSBXGolden State Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.01  0.61 (0.48) 7.08 
MVLYMission Valley Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.03  2.87 (0.33) 17.19 
MNMBMerchants Marine Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.68 (1.91) 11.78 
SVBTSVB T Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.15  2.42 (0.42) 6.00 
PVBKPacific Valley Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.54 (0.07) 1.42 (1.11) 5.47 
FMFGFarmers and Merchants 0.00 0 per month 1.04  0.07  2.09 (2.09) 7.57 
PBKXPartners Bank of 0.00 0 per month 0.25  0.16  3.01 (1.00) 5.98 
PGNNParagon Financial Solutions 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 0.82 (0.08) 2.60 

Other Forecasting Options for Redwood Capital

For every potential investor in Redwood, whether a beginner or expert, Redwood Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Redwood OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Redwood. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Redwood Capital's price trends.

Redwood Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Redwood Capital otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Redwood Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Redwood Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Redwood Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Redwood Capital otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Redwood Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Redwood Capital otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Redwood Capital Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Redwood Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of Redwood Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Redwood Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting redwood otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Redwood Capital

The number of cover stories for Redwood Capital depends on current market conditions and Redwood Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Redwood Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Redwood Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Redwood OTC Stock

Redwood Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Redwood OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Redwood with respect to the benefits of owning Redwood Capital security.