SPDR Dow Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RWX Etf | USD 28.46 0.14 0.49% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR Dow Jones on the next trading day is expected to be 28.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.55. SPDR Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of SPDR Dow's share price is below 20 indicating that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using SPDR Dow hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SPDR Dow Jones from the perspective of SPDR Dow response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards SPDR Dow using SPDR Dow's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards SPDR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of SPDR Dow's stock price.
SPDR Dow Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
SPDR Dow's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of SPDR Dow Jones stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if SPDR Dow's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that SPDR Dow stock will not fluctuate a lot when SPDR Dow's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR Dow Jones on the next trading day is expected to be 28.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.55. SPDR Dow after-hype prediction price | USD 28.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Dow to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current SPDR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that SPDR Dow Jones will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With SPDR Dow trading at USD 28.46, that is roughly USD 0.0135 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating SPDR Dow's daily price movement you should consider acquiring SPDR Dow Jones options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 SPDR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SPDR Dow's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SPDR Dow's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SPDR Dow stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SPDR Dow's open interest, investors have to compare it to SPDR Dow's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SPDR Dow is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SPDR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
SPDR Dow Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SPDR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SPDR using various technical indicators. When you analyze SPDR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SPDR Dow Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SPDR Dow Jones on the next trading day is expected to be 28.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SPDR Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SPDR Dow's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SPDR Dow Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SPDR Dow | SPDR Dow Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SPDR Dow Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SPDR Dow's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SPDR Dow's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.83 and 29.09, respectively. We have considered SPDR Dow's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SPDR Dow etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SPDR Dow etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8078 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0078 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1425 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0051 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.55 |
Predictive Modules for SPDR Dow
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPDR Dow Jones. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SPDR Dow's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SPDR Dow After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SPDR Dow at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SPDR Dow or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of SPDR Dow, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SPDR Dow Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SPDR Dow's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SPDR Dow's historical news coverage. SPDR Dow's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.97 and 29.23, respectively. We have considered SPDR Dow's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SPDR Dow is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SPDR Dow Jones is based on 3 months time horizon.
SPDR Dow Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as SPDR Dow is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SPDR Dow backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SPDR Dow, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.63 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.46 | 28.60 | 0.00 |
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SPDR Dow Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January SPDR Dow Jones is traded for 28.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. SPDR is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on SPDR Dow is about 1032.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.46. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.06. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Dow to cross-verify your projections.SPDR Dow Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SPDR Dow's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SPDR Dow's future price movements. Getting to know how SPDR Dow's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SPDR Dow may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TLTE | FlexShares Morningstar Emerging | 0.15 | 1 per month | 0.49 | 0.07 | 1.20 | (1.00) | 3.12 | |
| BINV | 2023 ETF Series | (0.20) | 2 per month | 0.48 | (0.0007) | 1.33 | (0.93) | 3.07 | |
| DEHP | Dimensional ETF Trust | (0.14) | 5 per month | 0.61 | 0.06 | 1.48 | (1.24) | 3.92 | |
| UIVM | VictoryShares International Value | 0.33 | 5 per month | 0.39 | 0.1 | 1.33 | (1.04) | 2.82 | |
| DFNL | Davis Select Financial | (0.05) | 2 per month | 0.54 | 0.09 | 1.67 | (1.28) | 3.73 | |
| XMVM | Invesco SP MidCap | (0.07) | 3 per month | 0.42 | 0.10 | 2.17 | (1.08) | 4.22 | |
| XSHQ | Invesco SP SmallCap | 0.96 | 4 per month | 0.84 | (0.0009) | 2.15 | (1.32) | 4.54 | |
| SMMV | iShares MSCI USA | (0.15) | 3 per month | 0.36 | (0.04) | 0.90 | (0.86) | 2.25 | |
| TPHD | Timothy Plan High | (0.30) | 4 per month | 0.58 | (0.03) | 1.21 | (1.13) | 3.19 | |
| KJAN | Innovator Russell 2000 | 0.08 | 2 per month | 0.67 | (0.01) | 1.31 | (1.13) | 3.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for SPDR Dow
For every potential investor in SPDR, whether a beginner or expert, SPDR Dow's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SPDR Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SPDR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SPDR Dow's price trends.SPDR Dow Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SPDR Dow etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SPDR Dow could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPDR Dow by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SPDR Dow Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SPDR Dow etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SPDR Dow shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SPDR Dow etf market strength indicators, traders can identify SPDR Dow Jones entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) |
SPDR Dow Risk Indicators
The analysis of SPDR Dow's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SPDR Dow's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spdr etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4901 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6154 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.622 | |||
| Variance | 0.3869 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4868 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3787 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SPDR Dow
The number of cover stories for SPDR Dow depends on current market conditions and SPDR Dow's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SPDR Dow is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SPDR Dow's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Dow to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
The market value of SPDR Dow Jones is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SPDR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SPDR Dow's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SPDR Dow's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SPDR Dow's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SPDR Dow's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SPDR Dow's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SPDR Dow is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SPDR Dow's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.