SPS Commerce Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

S86 Stock   187.00  2.00  1.08%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of SPS Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 177.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 369.96. SPS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through SPS Commerce price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

SPS Commerce Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of SPS Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 177.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.06, mean absolute percentage error of 63.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 369.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SPS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SPS Commerce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SPS Commerce Stock Forecast Pattern

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SPS Commerce Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SPS Commerce's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SPS Commerce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 175.71 and 180.01, respectively. We have considered SPS Commerce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
187.00
175.71
Downside
177.86
Expected Value
180.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SPS Commerce stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SPS Commerce stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.2681
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.0649
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.036
SAESum of the absolute errors369.9609
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as SPS Commerce historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for SPS Commerce

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPS Commerce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SPS Commerce's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
184.85187.00189.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
176.10178.25205.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
153.75173.38193.01
Details

Other Forecasting Options for SPS Commerce

For every potential investor in SPS, whether a beginner or expert, SPS Commerce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SPS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SPS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SPS Commerce's price trends.

SPS Commerce Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SPS Commerce stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SPS Commerce could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPS Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SPS Commerce Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SPS Commerce's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SPS Commerce's current price.

SPS Commerce Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SPS Commerce stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SPS Commerce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SPS Commerce stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SPS Commerce entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SPS Commerce Risk Indicators

The analysis of SPS Commerce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SPS Commerce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sps stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for SPS Stock Analysis

When running SPS Commerce's price analysis, check to measure SPS Commerce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SPS Commerce is operating at the current time. Most of SPS Commerce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SPS Commerce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SPS Commerce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SPS Commerce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.