Sonic Automotive Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

SAH Stock  USD 59.58  0.86  1.42%   
Sonic Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Sonic Automotive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 3rd of February 2026, the value of RSI of Sonic Automotive's share price is approaching 42. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sonic Automotive, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 42

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Sonic Automotive's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Sonic Automotive, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Sonic Automotive's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.7333
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.6008
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.0198
Wall Street Target Price
77.6
Using Sonic Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sonic Automotive from the perspective of Sonic Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sonic Automotive using Sonic Automotive's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sonic using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sonic Automotive's stock price.

Sonic Automotive Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Sonic Automotive's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Sonic. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Sonic Automotive stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
70.9194
Short Percent
0.1507
Short Ratio
11.1
Shares Short Prior Month
1.7 M
50 Day MA
63.2554

Sonic Relative Strength Index

The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Sonic Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 60.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.10.

Sonic Automotive Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Sonic Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sonic. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sonic can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sonic Automotive. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sonic Automotive's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sonic Automotive.

Sonic Automotive Implied Volatility

    
  0.76  
Sonic Automotive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sonic Automotive stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sonic Automotive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sonic Automotive stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sonic Automotive's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Sonic Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 60.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.10.

Sonic Automotive after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 60.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonic Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Sonic Stock please use our How to Invest in Sonic Automotive guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sonic contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sonic Automotive will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Sonic Automotive trading at USD 59.58, that is roughly USD 0.0283 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sonic Automotive's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sonic Automotive options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Sonic Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sonic Automotive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sonic Automotive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sonic Automotive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sonic Automotive's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sonic Automotive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sonic Automotive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sonic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Sonic Automotive Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Sonic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sonic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sonic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Sonic Automotive is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Sonic Automotive Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Sonic Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 60.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sonic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sonic Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sonic Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sonic Automotive  Sonic Automotive Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Sonic Automotive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sonic Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sonic Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.29 and 61.73, respectively. We have considered Sonic Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
59.58
60.01
Expected Value
61.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sonic Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sonic Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.6649
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.002
MADMean absolute deviation0.9339
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors55.1
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Sonic Automotive price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Sonic Automotive. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Sonic Automotive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sonic Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
58.5660.2862.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
54.2569.6671.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
59.6262.4465.27
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
70.6277.6086.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sonic Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sonic Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sonic Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sonic Automotive.

Sonic Automotive After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Sonic Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sonic Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sonic Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Sonic Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Sonic Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sonic Automotive's historical news coverage. Sonic Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.56 and 62.00, respectively. We have considered Sonic Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
59.58
60.28
After-hype Price
62.00
Upside
Sonic Automotive is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sonic Automotive is based on 3 months time horizon.

Sonic Automotive Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sonic Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sonic Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sonic Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.00  
1.72
 0.00  
 0.00  
11 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
59.58
60.28
0.00 
358.33  
Notes

Sonic Automotive Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of February Sonic Automotive is traded for 59.58. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Sonic is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sonic Automotive is about 579.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.58. About 32.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.92. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sonic Automotive has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.71. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 26th of January 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonic Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Sonic Stock please use our How to Invest in Sonic Automotive guide.

Sonic Automotive Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Sonic Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sonic Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how Sonic Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sonic Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DRVNDriven Brands Holdings 0.62 7 per month 1.69  0  3.92 (2.87) 9.77 
PHINPHINIA Inc 1.83 10 per month 1.09  0.22  3.13 (2.48) 6.35 
GTGoodyear Tire Rubber 0.32 9 per month 1.35  0.15  6.02 (2.47) 11.63 
HBIHanesbrands 0.24 10 per month 1.49 (0.01) 2.38 (2.35) 7.22 
UAAUnder Armour A 0.38 10 per month 2.22  0.12  4.98 (4.11) 13.53 
ADNTAdient PLC(0.27)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.13 (5.12) 21.07 
VACMarriot Vacations Worldwide(0.84)9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 4.80 (4.18) 28.68 
SBETSharplink Gaming(0.08)12 per month 0.00 (0.15) 7.07 (9.55) 19.15 
CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory 0.24 9 per month 2.27  0.04  4.01 (2.77) 8.66 
LCIILCI Industries 0.53 8 per month 0.41  0.31  5.33 (1.91) 11.30 

Other Forecasting Options for Sonic Automotive

For every potential investor in Sonic, whether a beginner or expert, Sonic Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sonic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sonic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sonic Automotive's price trends.

Sonic Automotive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sonic Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sonic Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sonic Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sonic Automotive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sonic Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sonic Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sonic Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sonic Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sonic Automotive Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sonic Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sonic Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sonic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Sonic Automotive

The number of cover stories for Sonic Automotive depends on current market conditions and Sonic Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sonic Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sonic Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Sonic Automotive Short Properties

Sonic Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sonic Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sonic Automotive often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sonic Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sonic Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding35 M
Cash And Short Term Investments44 M
When determining whether Sonic Automotive offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Sonic Automotive's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Sonic Automotive Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Sonic Automotive Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonic Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Sonic Stock please use our How to Invest in Sonic Automotive guide.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is there potential for Automotive Retail market expansion? Will Sonic introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sonic Automotive. If investors know Sonic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Sonic Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Dividend Share
1.43
Earnings Share
3.72
Revenue Per Share
445.106
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.138
The market value of Sonic Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sonic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sonic Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sonic Automotive's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Sonic Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sonic Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sonic Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sonic Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Sonic Automotive's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.