Boston Beer Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SAM Stock | USD 219.18 0.87 0.40% |
Boston Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Boston Beer's share price is at 57. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Boston Beer, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Boston Beer hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Boston Beer from the perspective of Boston Beer response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boston Beer on the next trading day is expected to be 219.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 164.89. Boston Beer after-hype prediction price | USD 219.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boston Beer to cross-verify your projections. Boston Beer Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Boston price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Boston using various technical indicators. When you analyze Boston charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Boston Beer Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boston Beer on the next trading day is expected to be 219.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75, mean absolute percentage error of 12.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 164.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Boston Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Boston Beer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Boston Beer Stock Forecast Pattern
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Boston Beer Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Boston Beer's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Boston Beer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 217.28 and 221.00, respectively. We have considered Boston Beer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Boston Beer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Boston Beer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.8214 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1571 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.7481 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0135 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 164.8852 |
Predictive Modules for Boston Beer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Boston Beer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Boston Beer After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Boston Beer at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Boston Beer or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Boston Beer, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Boston Beer Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Boston Beer's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Boston Beer's historical news coverage. Boston Beer's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 217.32 and 221.04, respectively. We have considered Boston Beer's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Boston Beer is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Boston Beer is based on 3 months time horizon.
Boston Beer Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Boston Beer is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Boston Beer backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Boston Beer, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.86 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 2 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
219.18 | 219.18 | 0.00 |
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Boston Beer Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Boston Beer is traded for 219.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Boston is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Boston Beer is about 738.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 219.20. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Boston Beer was at this time reported as 86.89. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.66. Boston Beer recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.61. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:4 split on the 14th of December 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boston Beer to cross-verify your projections.Boston Beer Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Boston Beer's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Boston Beer's future price movements. Getting to know how Boston Beer's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Boston Beer may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCU | Compania Cervecerias Unidas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.16 | 2.61 | (2.23) | 5.48 | |
| COCO | Vita Coco | (0.26) | 11 per month | 2.05 | 0.11 | 4.54 | (3.36) | 11.79 | |
| CHA | Chagee Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.85 | (4.48) | 15.71 | |
| UNFI | United Natural Foods | 0.87 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.75 | (7.32) | 13.48 | |
| SMPL | Simply Good Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.98 | (0.03) | 2.90 | (3.02) | 10.07 | |
| CHEF | The Chefs Warehouse | (0.26) | 5 per month | 1.66 | (0.01) | 2.92 | (2.85) | 8.54 | |
| FLO | Flowers Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.55 | (3.72) | 11.13 | |
| PRDO | Perdoceo Education Corp | 0.87 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.71 | (2.75) | 11.89 | |
| MH | McGraw Hill | 0.87 | 21 per month | 2.42 | 0.11 | 6.07 | (3.03) | 34.91 | |
| FIZZ | National Beverage Corp | 0.43 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.99 | (3.05) | 7.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Boston Beer
For every potential investor in Boston, whether a beginner or expert, Boston Beer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Boston Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Boston. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Boston Beer's price trends.Boston Beer Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Boston Beer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Boston Beer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Boston Beer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Boston Beer Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Boston Beer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Boston Beer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Boston Beer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Boston Beer entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Boston Beer Risk Indicators
The analysis of Boston Beer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Boston Beer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting boston stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Boston Beer
The number of cover stories for Boston Beer depends on current market conditions and Boston Beer's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Boston Beer is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Boston Beer's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Boston Beer Short Properties
Boston Beer's future price predictability will typically decrease when Boston Beer's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Boston Beer often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Boston Beer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Boston Beer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 211.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boston Beer to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Boston Stock, please use our How to Invest in Boston Beer guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Beverages space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Boston Beer. If investors know Boston will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Boston Beer listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Boston Beer is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Boston that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Boston Beer's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Boston Beer's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Boston Beer's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Boston Beer's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Boston Beer's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Boston Beer is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Boston Beer's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.