Cavco Industries Stock Price Prediction
| CVCO Stock | USD 508.64 31.82 6.67% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.109 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5 | EPS Estimate Current Year 18 | EPS Estimate Next Year 22.37 | Wall Street Target Price 508.3333 |
Using Cavco Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cavco Industries from the perspective of Cavco Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cavco Industries using Cavco Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cavco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cavco Industries' stock price.
Cavco Industries Short Interest
An investor who is long Cavco Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cavco Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cavco Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 412.6082 | Short Percent 0.0226 | Short Ratio 2.74 | Shares Short Prior Month 139.7 K | 50 Day MA 474.5482 |
Cavco Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cavco Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cavco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cavco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cavco Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cavco Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cavco Industries.
Cavco Industries Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Cavco Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cavco Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cavco Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cavco Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cavco Industries' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cavco Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cavco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cavco Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 506.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cavco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cavco Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Cavco Industries trading at USD 508.64, that is roughly USD 0.14 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cavco Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cavco Industries options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cavco |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cavco Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cavco Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cavco Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cavco Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cavco Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cavco Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cavco Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cavco Industries' historical news coverage. Cavco Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 504.59 and 559.50, respectively. We have considered Cavco Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cavco Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cavco Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cavco Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cavco Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cavco Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cavco Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 2.02 | 2.03 | 0.18 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
508.64 | 506.61 | 0.40 |
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Cavco Industries Hype Timeline
Cavco Industries is currently traded for 508.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Cavco is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 506.61. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 23.85%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.4%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Cavco Industries is about 265.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 508.46. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Cavco Industries was currently reported as 124.2. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.24. Cavco Industries recorded earning per share (EPS) of 18.87. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of February 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Cavco Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cavco Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cavco Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cavco Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Cavco Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cavco Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MTH | Meritage | (1.59) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.21 | (3.89) | 11.28 | |
| IBP | Installed Building Products | (1.15) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.53 | (4.39) | 13.57 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (1.14) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.35 | (3.35) | 9.46 | |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corp | 0.08 | 8 per month | 1.59 | (0.02) | 3.50 | (2.51) | 7.78 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | (0.63) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.79 | (3.68) | 12.02 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | (0.26) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.68 | (3.84) | 13.79 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | (1.53) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.01 | (2.85) | 8.28 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | 0.49 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.22 | (4.24) | 11.52 | |
| LGIH | LGI Homes | (3.71) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.92 | (3.56) | 11.51 | |
| SKY | Skyline | 1.83 | 9 per month | 2.03 | 0.01 | 3.62 | (2.59) | 9.80 |
Cavco Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cavco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cavco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cavco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Cavco Industries Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cavco Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cavco Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cavco Industries based on analysis of Cavco Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cavco Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cavco Industries's related companies. | 2017 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 25.62 | 28.71 | 30.0 | 24.73 | PTB Ratio | 2.88 | 3.28 | 3.43 | 3.6 |
Story Coverage note for Cavco Industries
The number of cover stories for Cavco Industries depends on current market conditions and Cavco Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cavco Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cavco Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cavco Industries Short Properties
Cavco Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cavco Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cavco Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cavco Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cavco Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 371 M |
Check out Cavco Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Cavco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cavco Industries guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cavco Industries. If investors know Cavco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cavco Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.109 | Earnings Share 18.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.123 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Cavco Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cavco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cavco Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cavco Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cavco Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cavco Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cavco Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cavco Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cavco Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.