Seneca Foods Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SENEB Stock | USD 120.00 5.01 4.36% |
Seneca Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Seneca Foods stock prices and determine the direction of Seneca Foods Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Seneca Foods' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Seneca Foods' stock price is about 61. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Seneca, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.254 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 |
Using Seneca Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Seneca Foods Corp from the perspective of Seneca Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Seneca Foods Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 120.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.27. Seneca Foods after-hype prediction price | USD 120.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Seneca Foods to cross-verify your projections. Seneca Foods Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Seneca price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Seneca using various technical indicators. When you analyze Seneca charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Seneca Foods Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Seneca Foods Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 120.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 6.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Seneca Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Seneca Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Seneca Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Seneca Foods | Seneca Foods Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Seneca Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Seneca Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Seneca Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.71 and 122.29, respectively. We have considered Seneca Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Seneca Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Seneca Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2081 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1572 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.27 |
Predictive Modules for Seneca Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Seneca Foods Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Seneca Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Seneca Foods After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Seneca Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Seneca Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Seneca Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Seneca Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Seneca Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Seneca Foods' historical news coverage. Seneca Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 118.26 and 122.84, respectively. We have considered Seneca Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Seneca Foods is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Seneca Foods Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Seneca Foods Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Seneca Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Seneca Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Seneca Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
120.00 | 120.55 | 0.46 |
|
Seneca Foods Hype Timeline
Seneca Foods Corp is at this time traded for 120.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.55, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Seneca is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 120.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 66.57%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Seneca Foods is about 1506.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.98. The company reported the revenue of 1.58 B. Net Income was 41.22 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 168.32 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Seneca Foods to cross-verify your projections.Seneca Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Seneca Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Seneca Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Seneca Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Seneca Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBSS | John B Sanfilippo | (0.83) | 6 per month | 1.52 | 0.16 | 2.64 | (2.19) | 23.73 | |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by | (0.73) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.08 | (5.00) | 10.76 | |
| HLF | Herbalife Nutrition | 0.22 | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.27 | 9.22 | (4.28) | 30.37 | |
| BYND | Beyond Meat | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 11.83 | (9.82) | 45.83 | |
| STKL | SunOpta | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.09 | (3.77) | 27.96 | |
| KLC | KinderCare Learning Companies | 0.21 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.25 | (6.18) | 24.00 | |
| AVO | Mission Produce | 0.14 | 11 per month | 2.57 | 0.09 | 2.46 | (3.23) | 12.39 | |
| UTZ | Utz Brands | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.32 | (4.80) | 12.63 | |
| USNA | USANA Health Sciences | (0.17) | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0.03 | 4.04 | (3.29) | 13.27 | |
| THS | Treehouse Foods | (0.12) | 7 per month | 0.65 | 0.12 | 2.06 | (1.31) | 23.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Seneca Foods
For every potential investor in Seneca, whether a beginner or expert, Seneca Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Seneca Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Seneca. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Seneca Foods' price trends.Seneca Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Seneca Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Seneca Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Seneca Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Seneca Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Seneca Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Seneca Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Seneca Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Seneca Foods Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Seneca Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Seneca Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Seneca Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting seneca stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Seneca Foods
The number of cover stories for Seneca Foods depends on current market conditions and Seneca Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Seneca Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Seneca Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Seneca Foods Short Properties
Seneca Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when Seneca Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Seneca Foods Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Seneca Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Seneca Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 42.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Seneca Foods to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Food Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Seneca Foods. If investors know Seneca will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Seneca Foods assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.254 | Earnings Share 9.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Seneca Foods Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Seneca Foods' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Seneca Foods' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Seneca Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Seneca Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Seneca Foods' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.