Septerna Common Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SEPN Stock | 25.97 0.20 0.78% |
Septerna Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Septerna Common's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Septerna Common's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Septerna Common fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Septerna Common's share price is at 50. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Septerna Common, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.17) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.94) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.84) | Wall Street Target Price 33.8571 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.7938 |
Using Septerna Common hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Septerna Common Stock from the perspective of Septerna Common response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Septerna Common using Septerna Common's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Septerna using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Septerna Common's stock price.
Septerna Common Implied Volatility | 0.77 |
Septerna Common's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Septerna Common Stock stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Septerna Common's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Septerna Common stock will not fluctuate a lot when Septerna Common's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Septerna Common Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 25.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.61. Septerna Common after-hype prediction price | USD 25.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Septerna Common to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Septerna contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Septerna Common Stock will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0481% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Septerna Common trading at USD 25.97, that is roughly USD 0.0125 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Septerna Common's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Septerna Common Stock options at the current volatility level of 0.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Septerna Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Septerna Common's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Septerna Common's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Septerna Common stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Septerna Common's open interest, investors have to compare it to Septerna Common's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Septerna Common is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Septerna. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Septerna Common Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Septerna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Septerna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Septerna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Septerna Common Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Septerna Common Stock on the next trading day is expected to be 25.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Septerna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Septerna Common's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Septerna Common Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Septerna Common | Septerna Common Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Septerna Common Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Septerna Common's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Septerna Common's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.34 and 30.60, respectively. We have considered Septerna Common's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Septerna Common stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Septerna Common stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4487 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0672 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8268 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0326 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.61 |
Predictive Modules for Septerna Common
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Septerna Common Stock. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Septerna Common After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Septerna Common at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Septerna Common or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Septerna Common, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Septerna Common Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Septerna Common's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Septerna Common's historical news coverage. Septerna Common's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.31 and 30.57, respectively. We have considered Septerna Common's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Septerna Common is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Septerna Common Stock is based on 3 months time horizon.
Septerna Common Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Septerna Common is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Septerna Common backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Septerna Common, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 4.63 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 37 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 37 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.97 | 25.94 | 0.12 |
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Septerna Common Hype Timeline
Septerna Common Stock is at this time traded for 25.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Septerna is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 25.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.38%. The volatility of related hype on Septerna Common is about 8903.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.99. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Septerna Common was at this time reported as 8.71. The company recorded a loss per share of 6.9. Septerna Common Stock had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 37 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Septerna Common to cross-verify your projections.Septerna Common Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Septerna Common's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Septerna Common's future price movements. Getting to know how Septerna Common's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Septerna Common may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BCAX | Bicara Therapeutics Common | 0.45 | 7 per month | 3.41 | (0.02) | 6.05 | (6.63) | 18.88 | |
| TNGX | Tango Therapeutics | (0.41) | 10 per month | 4.05 | 0.08 | 11.29 | (6.24) | 31.20 | |
| FTRE | Fortrea Holdings | 0.09 | 9 per month | 3.44 | 0.16 | 8.57 | (5.96) | 33.07 | |
| PRME | Prime Medicine Common | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 12.57 | (8.38) | 23.00 | |
| KURA | Kura Oncology | (0.37) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.59 | (5.06) | 22.27 | |
| EYPT | Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals | 0.38 | 9 per month | 3.35 | 0.1 | 7.21 | (4.89) | 22.25 | |
| PROK | ProKidney Corp | (0.10) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.77 | (8.95) | 22.38 | |
| MRVI | Maravai Lifesciences Holdings | (0.03) | 11 per month | 3.19 | 0.03 | 8.38 | (6.35) | 20.24 | |
| NRIX | Nurix Therapeutics | 0.33 | 8 per month | 2.58 | 0.20 | 9.23 | (4.80) | 27.63 | |
| ABUS | Arbutus Biopharma Corp | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.10 | (4.71) | 20.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Septerna Common
For every potential investor in Septerna, whether a beginner or expert, Septerna Common's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Septerna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Septerna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Septerna Common's price trends.Septerna Common Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Septerna Common stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Septerna Common could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Septerna Common by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Septerna Common Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Septerna Common stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Septerna Common shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Septerna Common stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Septerna Common Stock entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Septerna Common Risk Indicators
The analysis of Septerna Common's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Septerna Common's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting septerna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.51 | |||
| Variance | 20.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Septerna Common
The number of cover stories for Septerna Common depends on current market conditions and Septerna Common's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Septerna Common is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Septerna Common's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Septerna Common Short Properties
Septerna Common's future price predictability will typically decrease when Septerna Common's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Septerna Common Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Septerna Common's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Septerna Common's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 350.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Septerna Common to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Septerna Common. If investors know Septerna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Septerna Common listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (6.90) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 121.131 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Septerna Common Stock is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Septerna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Septerna Common's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Septerna Common's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Septerna Common's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Septerna Common's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Septerna Common's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Septerna Common is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Septerna Common's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.