Surge Energy Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| SGY Stock | CAD 7.52 0.09 1.21% |
Surge Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Surge Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Surge Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Surge Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Surge Energy's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.07) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.54 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.5133 | Wall Street Target Price 9.3611 |
Using Surge Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Surge Energy from the perspective of Surge Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Surge Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.45. Surge Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 7.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Surge |
Surge Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Surge price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Surge using various technical indicators. When you analyze Surge charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Surge Energy Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Surge Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Surge Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Surge Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Surge Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Surge Energy | Surge Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Surge Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Surge Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Surge Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.66 and 10.25, respectively. We have considered Surge Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Surge Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Surge Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7463 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1685 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0238 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.4471 |
Predictive Modules for Surge Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Surge Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Surge Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Surge Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Surge Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Surge Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Surge Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Surge Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Surge Energy's historical news coverage. Surge Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.21 and 9.79, respectively. We have considered Surge Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Surge Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Surge Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Surge Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Surge Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Surge Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Surge Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.29 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.52 | 7.50 | 0.27 |
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Surge Energy Hype Timeline
Surge Energy is at this time traded for 7.52on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Surge is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Surge Energy is about 1924.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.54. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.99. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Surge Energy last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 117:100 split on the 20th of August 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Surge Energy to cross-verify your projections.Surge Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Surge Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Surge Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Surge Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Surge Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VLE | Valeura Energy | (0.1) | 8 per month | 1.81 | 0.26 | 5.29 | (3.43) | 13.92 | |
| SNM | ShaMaran Petroleum Corp | 0.01 | 3 per month | 2.88 | (0.02) | 4.55 | (4.35) | 16.33 | |
| TAL | PetroTal Corp | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.26 | (5.00) | 32.84 | |
| TNZ | Tenaz Energy Corp | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.99 | 0.19 | 5.24 | (3.58) | 20.14 | |
| MATR | Mattr Corp | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.67 | (3.09) | 21.36 | |
| NOA | North American Construction | 0.51 | 7 per month | 2.07 | 0.06 | 4.52 | (3.14) | 9.30 | |
| SOIL | Saturn Oil Gas | (0.11) | 5 per month | 2.77 | 0.10 | 5.17 | (4.28) | 12.79 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | 0.25 | 4 per month | 2.62 | 0.08 | 4.47 | (4.06) | 12.88 | |
| LGN | Logan Energy Corp | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.53 | (2.47) | 8.51 | |
| TOT | Total Energy Services | 0.36 | 3 per month | 2.12 | 0.08 | 2.84 | (2.50) | 9.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Surge Energy
For every potential investor in Surge, whether a beginner or expert, Surge Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Surge Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Surge. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Surge Energy's price trends.Surge Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Surge Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Surge Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Surge Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Surge Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Surge Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Surge Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Surge Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Surge Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9494.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.48 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 |
Surge Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Surge Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Surge Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting surge stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.03 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Surge Energy
The number of cover stories for Surge Energy depends on current market conditions and Surge Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Surge Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Surge Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Surge Energy Short Properties
Surge Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Surge Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Surge Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Surge Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Surge Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.6 M |
Other Information on Investing in Surge Stock
Surge Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Surge Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Surge with respect to the benefits of owning Surge Energy security.