Obsidian Energy Stock Price Patterns
| OBE Stock | CAD 9.84 0.20 1.99% |
Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.84 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.07 | Wall Street Target Price 9.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.38 |
Using Obsidian Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Obsidian Energy from the perspective of Obsidian Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Obsidian Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Obsidian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Obsidian Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 10.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Obsidian |
Obsidian Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Obsidian Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Obsidian Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Obsidian Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Obsidian Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Obsidian Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Obsidian Energy's historical news coverage. Obsidian Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.62 and 12.46, respectively. We have considered Obsidian Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Obsidian Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Obsidian Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Obsidian Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Obsidian Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Obsidian Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Obsidian Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 2.44 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.84 | 10.04 | 0.00 |
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Obsidian Energy Hype Timeline
Obsidian Energy is now traded for 9.84on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Obsidian is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on Obsidian Energy is about 20333.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.84. About 29.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.47. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Obsidian Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.09. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.06. The firm last dividend was issued on the 28th of September 2015. Obsidian Energy had 1:7 split on the 10th of June 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Obsidian Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Obsidian Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Obsidian Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Obsidian Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Obsidian Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Obsidian Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TAL | PetroTal Corp | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.76 | (4.76) | 37.52 | |
| SOIL | Saturn Oil Gas | 0.03 | 10 per month | 2.56 | 0.11 | 5.17 | (3.97) | 12.79 | |
| GFR | Greenfire Resources | 0.01 | 2 per month | 3.27 | 0.02 | 5.76 | (5.90) | 15.59 | |
| NOA | North American Construction | (0.24) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.90 | (3.92) | 11.39 | |
| SNM | ShaMaran Petroleum Corp | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.55 | (4.35) | 16.33 | |
| SGY | Surge Energy | 0.04 | 5 per month | 1.94 | 0.07 | 3.53 | (3.23) | 9.35 | |
| LGN | Logan Energy Corp | (0.01) | 4 per month | 1.51 | 0.01 | 2.56 | (2.47) | 8.51 | |
| TNZ | Tenaz Energy Corp | 0.01 | 3 per month | 1.84 | 0.18 | 4.75 | (3.43) | 17.96 | |
| FEC | Frontera Energy Corp | 0.27 | 4 per month | 1.45 | 0.15 | 5.24 | (3.05) | 13.06 | |
| CEI | Benchmark Metals | (0.01) | 4 per month | 1.28 | 0.02 | 2.53 | (2.41) | 9.74 |
Obsidian Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Obsidian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Obsidian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Obsidian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Obsidian Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Obsidian Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Obsidian Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Obsidian Energy based on analysis of Obsidian Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Obsidian Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Obsidian Energy's related companies. | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.52 | 0.92 | Dividend Yield | 0.12 | 0.088 |
Pair Trading with Obsidian Energy
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Obsidian Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Obsidian Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Obsidian Stock
| 0.5 | AAPL | Apple CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | AAPL | Apple Inc CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | MSFT | Microsoft CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | MSFT | Microsoft Corp CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | ENS-PA | E Split Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Obsidian Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Obsidian Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Obsidian Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Obsidian Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Obsidian Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Obsidian Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Obsidian Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Obsidian Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Obsidian Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Obsidian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Obsidian Energy guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.