SIGA Technologies Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| SIGA Stock | USD 6.79 0.15 2.26% |
SIGA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SIGA Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of SIGA Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SIGA Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of SIGA Technologies' share price is approaching 48. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling SIGA Technologies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.025 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.38 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.51 | Wall Street Target Price 17.53 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.74) |
Using SIGA Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SIGA Technologies from the perspective of SIGA Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards SIGA Technologies using SIGA Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards SIGA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of SIGA Technologies' stock price.
SIGA Technologies Implied Volatility | 1.04 |
SIGA Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of SIGA Technologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if SIGA Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that SIGA Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when SIGA Technologies' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of SIGA Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 6.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.04. SIGA Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 6.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SIGA Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current SIGA contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that SIGA Technologies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.065% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With SIGA Technologies trading at USD 6.79, that is roughly USD 0.004414 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating SIGA Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring SIGA Technologies options at the current volatility level of 1.04%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 SIGA Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SIGA Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SIGA Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SIGA Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SIGA Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to SIGA Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SIGA Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SIGA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
SIGA Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SIGA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SIGA using various technical indicators. When you analyze SIGA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SIGA Technologies Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of SIGA Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 6.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SIGA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SIGA Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SIGA Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SIGA Technologies | SIGA Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SIGA Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SIGA Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SIGA Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.06 and 9.40, respectively. We have considered SIGA Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SIGA Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SIGA Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2306 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5088 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0754 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.0365 |
Predictive Modules for SIGA Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SIGA Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SIGA Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SIGA Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SIGA Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SIGA Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SIGA Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SIGA Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SIGA Technologies' historical news coverage. SIGA Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.64 and 9.98, respectively. We have considered SIGA Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SIGA Technologies is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SIGA Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
SIGA Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SIGA Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SIGA Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SIGA Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 3.17 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.79 | 6.81 | 0.29 |
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SIGA Technologies Hype Timeline
SIGA Technologies is at this time traded for 6.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. SIGA is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.3%. The volatility of related hype on SIGA Technologies is about 609.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.95. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 138.72 M. Net Income was 59.21 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 113.14 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SIGA Technologies to cross-verify your projections.SIGA Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SIGA Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SIGA Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how SIGA Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SIGA Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EBS | Emergent Biosolutions | (0.44) | 11 per month | 4.11 | 0.06 | 8.06 | (4.53) | 52.54 | |
| ESPR | Esperion Therapeutics | (0.09) | 9 per month | 4.19 | 0.04 | 7.05 | (7.04) | 24.91 | |
| SNDL | SNDL Inc | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.06 | (5.88) | 37.98 | |
| AQST | Aquestive Therapeutics | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 5.14 | (7.62) | 45.05 | |
| RIGL | Rigel Pharmaceuticals | 3.29 | 13 per month | 3.84 | 0.07 | 8.66 | (7.41) | 44.65 | |
| ORGO | Organogenesis Holdings | (0.07) | 4 per month | 3.75 | 0.01 | 9.18 | (7.07) | 55.15 | |
| VTYX | Ventyx Biosciences | 2.15 | 13 per month | 3.55 | 0.21 | 14.60 | (6.90) | 86.34 | |
| CTMX | CytomX Therapeutics | 0.21 | 8 per month | 4.27 | 0.12 | 8.13 | (8.51) | 28.31 | |
| DRIO | DarioHealth Corp | 0.50 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.50 | (10.12) | 31.83 | |
| OLMA | Olema Pharmaceuticals | (0.18) | 11 per month | 2.79 | 0.15 | 9.82 | (5.86) | 145.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for SIGA Technologies
For every potential investor in SIGA, whether a beginner or expert, SIGA Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SIGA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SIGA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SIGA Technologies' price trends.SIGA Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SIGA Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SIGA Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SIGA Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SIGA Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SIGA Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SIGA Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SIGA Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SIGA Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SIGA Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of SIGA Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SIGA Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting siga stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Variance | 9.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SIGA Technologies
The number of cover stories for SIGA Technologies depends on current market conditions and SIGA Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SIGA Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SIGA Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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SIGA Technologies Short Properties
SIGA Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when SIGA Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SIGA Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SIGA Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SIGA Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 155.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SIGA Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade SIGA Stock refer to our How to Trade SIGA Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SIGA Technologies. If investors know SIGA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SIGA Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.025 | Earnings Share 1.03 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.74) | Return On Assets |
The market value of SIGA Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SIGA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SIGA Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SIGA Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SIGA Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SIGA Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SIGA Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SIGA Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SIGA Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.