Sol Gel Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SLGL Stock | USD 57.34 1.10 1.88% |
Sol Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Sol Gel's share price is at 57. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sol Gel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sol Gel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sol Gel Technologies from the perspective of Sol Gel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sol Gel Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 57.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.04. Sol Gel after-hype prediction price | USD 57.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sol Gel to cross-verify your projections. Sol Gel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sol Gel Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sol Gel Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 57.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78, mean absolute percentage error of 6.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sol Gel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sol Gel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sol Gel | Sol Gel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sol Gel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sol Gel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sol Gel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.12 and 62.86, respectively. We have considered Sol Gel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sol Gel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sol Gel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.189 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.784 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0395 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 107.04 |
Predictive Modules for Sol Gel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sol Gel Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sol Gel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sol Gel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sol Gel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sol Gel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sol Gel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sol Gel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sol Gel's historical news coverage. Sol Gel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.01 and 62.67, respectively. We have considered Sol Gel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sol Gel is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sol Gel Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sol Gel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sol Gel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sol Gel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sol Gel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.87 | 5.37 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
57.34 | 57.34 | 0.00 |
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Sol Gel Hype Timeline
Sol Gel Technologies is at this time traded for 57.34. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.12. Sol is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.87%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sol Gel is about 3808.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.22. About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.22. Sol Gel Technologies had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 5th of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sol Gel to cross-verify your projections.Sol Gel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sol Gel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sol Gel's future price movements. Getting to know how Sol Gel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sol Gel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OKYO | OKYO Pharma Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.99 | (8.25) | 34.51 | |
| CLNN | Clene Inc | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 10.11 | (14.19) | 47.42 | |
| COYA | Coya Therapeutics Common | (0.02) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.28 | (5.56) | 26.90 | |
| TLSA | Tiziana Life Sciences | (0.45) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.41 | (5.81) | 21.81 | |
| PLRX | Pliant Therapeutics | (0.32) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.58 | (6.71) | 22.72 | |
| MGNX | MacroGenics | 0.03 | 10 per month | 3.90 | 0.02 | 6.83 | (6.25) | 26.78 | |
| ZNTL | Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Llc | 0.02 | 9 per month | 3.72 | 0.12 | 17.36 | (8.33) | 45.93 | |
| ANEB | Anebulo Pharmaceuticals | (0.94) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 4.81 | (6.67) | 36.64 | |
| OVID | Ovid Therapeutics | (0.1) | 9 per month | 4.34 | 0.02 | 9.20 | (7.30) | 29.07 | |
| ORMP | Oramed Pharmaceuticals | (0.06) | 7 per month | 1.86 | 0.21 | 6.98 | (3.49) | 17.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sol Gel
For every potential investor in Sol, whether a beginner or expert, Sol Gel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sol Gel's price trends.Sol Gel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sol Gel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sol Gel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sol Gel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sol Gel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sol Gel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sol Gel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sol Gel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sol Gel Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4605.88 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.11) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 60.34 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 59.34 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.55) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.75 |
Sol Gel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sol Gel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sol Gel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.33 | |||
| Variance | 28.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 24.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sol Gel
The number of cover stories for Sol Gel depends on current market conditions and Sol Gel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sol Gel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sol Gel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sol Gel Short Properties
Sol Gel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sol Gel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sol Gel Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sol Gel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sol Gel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sol Gel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sol Gel. If investors know Sol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sol Gel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Sol Gel Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sol Gel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sol Gel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sol Gel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sol Gel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sol Gel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sol Gel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sol Gel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.