Soleno Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| SLNO Stock | USD 42.36 1.39 3.18% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Soleno Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 41.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 215.88. Soleno Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the rsi of Soleno Therapeutics' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Soleno Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Soleno Therapeutics from the perspective of Soleno Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Soleno Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 41.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 215.88. Soleno Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 41.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Soleno Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Soleno Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Soleno price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Soleno using various technical indicators. When you analyze Soleno charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Soleno Therapeutics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Soleno Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 41.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.54, mean absolute percentage error of 25.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 215.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Soleno Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Soleno Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Soleno Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Soleno Therapeutics | Soleno Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Soleno Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Soleno Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Soleno Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.63 and 45.95, respectively. We have considered Soleno Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Soleno Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Soleno Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.3468 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5391 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0681 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 215.8828 |
Predictive Modules for Soleno Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Soleno Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Soleno Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Soleno Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Soleno Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Soleno Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Soleno Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Soleno Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Soleno Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Soleno Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.57 and 45.89, respectively. We have considered Soleno Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Soleno Therapeutics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Soleno Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Soleno Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Soleno Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Soleno Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Soleno Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.64 | 4.66 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
42.36 | 41.23 | 2.67 |
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Soleno Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Soleno Therapeutics is at this time traded for 42.36. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.22. Soleno is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 41.23. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.67%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.64%. The volatility of related hype on Soleno Therapeutics is about 1342.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.14. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Soleno Therapeutics was at this time reported as 9.21. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.75. Soleno Therapeutics last dividend was issued on the 6th of October 2017. The entity had 1:15 split on the 26th of August 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Soleno Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Soleno Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Soleno Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Soleno Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Soleno Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Soleno Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRAX | Praxis Precision Medicines | (0.31) | 8 per month | 3.95 | 0.15 | 9.33 | (6.06) | 35.28 | |
| DYN | Dyne Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.01 | (5.90) | 26.40 | |
| AAPG | Ascentage Pharma Group | 1.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.25 | (6.36) | 16.72 | |
| APGE | Apogee Therapeutics Common | 1.96 | 8 per month | 2.57 | 0.09 | 4.56 | (3.96) | 15.07 | |
| CNTA | Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC | (0.55) | 7 per month | 2.50 | 0.04 | 4.97 | (4.08) | 26.54 | |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | (2.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.78 | (2.71) | 10.56 | |
| RARE | Ultragenyx | (1.09) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.73 | (4.09) | 51.23 | |
| MIRM | Mirum Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.15 | 4.60 | (3.38) | 13.83 | |
| CELC | Celcuity LLC | (1.63) | 9 per month | 2.29 | 0.19 | 7.55 | (3.96) | 17.89 | |
| VKTX | Viking Therapeutics | (0.57) | 9 per month | 3.43 | (0.02) | 7.96 | (5.49) | 19.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for Soleno Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Soleno, whether a beginner or expert, Soleno Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Soleno Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Soleno. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Soleno Therapeutics' price trends.Soleno Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Soleno Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Soleno Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Soleno Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Soleno Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Soleno Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Soleno Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Soleno Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Soleno Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Soleno Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Soleno Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Soleno Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting soleno stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.66 | |||
| Variance | 21.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Soleno Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Soleno Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Soleno Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Soleno Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Soleno Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Soleno Therapeutics Short Properties
Soleno Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Soleno Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Soleno Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Soleno Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Soleno Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 291.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Soleno Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Soleno Stock, please use our How to Invest in Soleno Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Soleno Therapeutics. If investors know Soleno will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Soleno Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Soleno Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Soleno that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Soleno Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Soleno Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Soleno Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Soleno Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Soleno Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Soleno Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Soleno Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.