Sellas Life Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SLS Stock | USD 4.26 0.25 5.54% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sellas Life Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 4.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.68. Sellas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Sellas Life's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.09) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.26) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.32) | Wall Street Target Price 6.8333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.08) |
Using Sellas Life hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sellas Life Sciences from the perspective of Sellas Life response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sellas Life using Sellas Life's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sellas using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sellas Life's stock price.
Sellas Life Short Interest
An investor who is long Sellas Life may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sellas Life and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sellas Life with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.9209 | Short Percent 0.3496 | Short Ratio 5.7 | Shares Short Prior Month 40.5 M | 50 Day MA 2.5338 |
Sellas Life Sciences Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sellas Life's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sellas. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sellas can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sellas Life Sciences. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Sellas Life Implied Volatility | 1.66 |
Sellas Life's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sellas Life Sciences stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sellas Life's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sellas Life stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sellas Life's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sellas Life Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 4.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.68.
Sellas Life after-hype prediction price | USD 4.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sellas Life to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sellas contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sellas Life Sciences will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Sellas Life trading at USD 4.26, that is roughly USD 0.00442 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sellas Life's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sellas Life Sciences options at the current volatility level of 1.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Sellas Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sellas Life's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sellas Life's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sellas Life stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sellas Life's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sellas Life's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sellas Life is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sellas. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Sellas Life Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sellas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sellas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sellas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sellas Life Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sellas Life Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 4.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sellas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sellas Life's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sellas Life Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sellas Life | Sellas Life Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sellas Life Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sellas Life's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sellas Life's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 11.67, respectively. We have considered Sellas Life's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sellas Life stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sellas Life stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0223 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1613 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.061 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.68 |
Predictive Modules for Sellas Life
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sellas Life Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sellas Life After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sellas Life at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sellas Life or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sellas Life, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sellas Life Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sellas Life's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sellas Life's historical news coverage. Sellas Life's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 11.98, respectively. We have considered Sellas Life's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sellas Life is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sellas Life Sciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sellas Life Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sellas Life is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sellas Life backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sellas Life, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.56 | 7.35 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.26 | 4.63 | 8.69 |
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Sellas Life Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Sellas Life Sciences is traded for 4.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.38. Sellas is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 8.69%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.56%. The volatility of related hype on Sellas Life is about 3012.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.64. The company has Return on Asset of (0.449) % which means that on every $100 spent on assets, it lost $0.449. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows a return on shareholders' equity (ROE) of (0.8433) %, meaning that it generated no profit with money invested by stockholders. Sellas Life's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Sellas Life manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Return On Tangible Assets is likely to drop to -1.67 in 2026. Return On Capital Employed is likely to drop to -3 in 2026. At this time, Sellas Life's Total Assets are comparatively stable compared to the past year. Total Current Assets is likely to gain to about 22 M in 2026, whereas Net Tangible Assets are likely to drop slightly above 3.2 M in 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sellas Life to cross-verify your projections.Sellas Life Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sellas Life's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sellas Life's future price movements. Getting to know how Sellas Life's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sellas Life may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NTHI | NeOnc Technologies Holdings | 1.35 | 10 per month | 7.60 | (0) | 9.99 | (11.89) | 41.97 | |
| MDWD | Mediwound | 0.39 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.79 | (5.28) | 14.07 | |
| GNFT | Genfit SA | (0.13) | 8 per month | 3.86 | 0.12 | 7.34 | (7.71) | 25.18 | |
| TARA | Protara Therapeutics | 0.33 | 18 per month | 4.95 | 0.04 | 11.78 | (8.67) | 39.96 | |
| IVVD | Invivyd | (0.10) | 9 per month | 5.55 | 0.07 | 14.95 | (9.43) | 46.37 | |
| CDXS | Codexis | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.66 | (6.56) | 22.77 | |
| OABI | OmniAb Inc | 0.16 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.05 | 7.97 | (5.16) | 15.52 | |
| ARMP | Armata Pharmaceuticals | 0.1 | 29 per month | 6.36 | 0.10 | 14.73 | (10.65) | 124.74 | |
| PRLD | Prelude Therapeutics | (0.01) | 14 per month | 11.33 | 0.10 | 20.00 | (16.17) | 206.09 | |
| CCCC | C4 Therapeutics | 0.36 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.16 | (7.32) | 24.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sellas Life
For every potential investor in Sellas, whether a beginner or expert, Sellas Life's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sellas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sellas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sellas Life's price trends.Sellas Life Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sellas Life stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sellas Life could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sellas Life by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sellas Life Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sellas Life stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sellas Life shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sellas Life stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sellas Life Sciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 253936.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.86) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.34 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.25) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.25) |
Sellas Life Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sellas Life's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sellas Life's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sellas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.15 | |||
| Variance | 51.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 35.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sellas Life
The number of cover stories for Sellas Life depends on current market conditions and Sellas Life's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sellas Life is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sellas Life's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sellas Life Short Properties
Sellas Life's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sellas Life's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sellas Life Sciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sellas Life's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sellas Life's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 612 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.9 M |
Additional Tools for Sellas Stock Analysis
When running Sellas Life's price analysis, check to measure Sellas Life's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sellas Life is operating at the current time. Most of Sellas Life's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sellas Life's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sellas Life's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sellas Life to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.