Smith Midland Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SMID Stock | USD 35.14 0.07 0.20% |
Smith Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Smith Midland stock prices and determine the direction of Smith Midland Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smith Midland's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Smith Midland's share price is approaching 47. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Smith Midland, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
Using Smith Midland hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smith Midland Corp from the perspective of Smith Midland response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Midland Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.46. Smith Midland after-hype prediction price | USD 35.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Midland to cross-verify your projections. Smith Midland Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Midland Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Midland Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 35.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 1.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Midland's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smith Midland Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smith Midland | Smith Midland Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smith Midland Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smith Midland's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith Midland's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.19 and 38.09, respectively. We have considered Smith Midland's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Midland stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Midland stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1564 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0246 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7944 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0228 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.46 |
Predictive Modules for Smith Midland
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Midland Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smith Midland After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smith Midland at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smith Midland or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Smith Midland, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smith Midland Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smith Midland's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smith Midland's historical news coverage. Smith Midland's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.16 and 38.06, respectively. We have considered Smith Midland's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smith Midland is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smith Midland Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smith Midland Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smith Midland is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smith Midland backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smith Midland, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.95 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.14 | 35.11 | 0.09 |
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Smith Midland Hype Timeline
Smith Midland Corp is at this time traded for 35.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Smith is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 35.11. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Smith Midland is about 6555.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.14. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Smith Midland was at this time reported as 9.83. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2019. Smith Midland Corp had 1:1 split on the June 19, 2008. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Midland to cross-verify your projections.Smith Midland Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smith Midland's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smith Midland's future price movements. Getting to know how Smith Midland's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smith Midland may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LUD | Luda Technology Group | 0.06 | 19 per month | 8.20 | 0.02 | 16.93 | (12.66) | 56.55 | |
| VGZ | Vista Gold | (0.03) | 9 per month | 3.46 | 0.15 | 10.50 | (7.14) | 22.77 | |
| FRD | Friedman Industries Common | 0.58 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.33 | (5.84) | 16.36 | |
| CMT | Core Molding Technologies | 0.51 | 5 per month | 3.10 | 0.0001 | 3.78 | (5.13) | 13.25 | |
| FF | FutureFuel Corp | (2.08) | 26 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.71 | (3.98) | 14.81 | |
| USAU | US Gold Corp | (0.02) | 9 per month | 3.27 | 0.07 | 7.02 | (5.03) | 22.04 | |
| VOXR | Vox Royalty Corp | 0.1 | 30 per month | 2.27 | 0.17 | 5.36 | (4.72) | 11.87 | |
| BGL | Blue Gold Limited | 0.1 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 13.74 | (16.33) | 113.54 | |
| FEAM | 5E Advanced Materials | 0.33 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 8.39 | (9.81) | 42.14 | |
| BHST | BioHarvest Sciences Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 9.49 | (8.30) | 22.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Smith Midland
For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith Midland's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith Midland's price trends.Smith Midland Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smith Midland stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smith Midland could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smith Midland by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith Midland Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith Midland stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith Midland shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith Midland stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith Midland Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Smith Midland Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smith Midland's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith Midland's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Variance | 8.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Smith Midland
The number of cover stories for Smith Midland depends on current market conditions and Smith Midland's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smith Midland is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smith Midland's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Smith Midland Short Properties
Smith Midland's future price predictability will typically decrease when Smith Midland's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Smith Midland Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Smith Midland's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Midland's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Midland to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Will Construction Materials sector continue expanding? Could Smith diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Midland. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Smith Midland data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Earnings Share 2.23 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) | Return On Assets |
Smith Midland Corp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Smith's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Smith Midland's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Smith Midland's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Midland's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Midland is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Midland's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.