Sonida Senior Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SNDA Stock | USD 31.85 0.56 1.79% |
Sonida Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sonida Senior stock prices and determine the direction of Sonida Senior Living's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Sonida Senior's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Sonida Senior's share price is at 58. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sonida Senior, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.80) | EPS Estimate Next Year (5.09) | Wall Street Target Price 31.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.259 |
Using Sonida Senior hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sonida Senior Living from the perspective of Sonida Senior response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Sonida Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sonida Senior Living on the next trading day is expected to be 31.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.77.Sonida Senior Living Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sonida Senior's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sonida. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sonida can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sonida Senior Living. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sonida Senior's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sonida Senior.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sonida Senior Living on the next trading day is expected to be 31.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.77. Sonida Senior after-hype prediction price | USD 31.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonida Senior to cross-verify your projections. Sonida Senior Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sonida price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sonida using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sonida charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sonida Senior Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sonida Senior Living on the next trading day is expected to be 31.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sonida Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sonida Senior's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sonida Senior Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sonida Senior | Sonida Senior Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Sonida Senior Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sonida Senior's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sonida Senior's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.44 and 34.26, respectively. We have considered Sonida Senior's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sonida Senior stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sonida Senior stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5131 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1018 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3962 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.77 |
Predictive Modules for Sonida Senior
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sonida Senior Living. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sonida Senior's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sonida Senior After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sonida Senior at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sonida Senior or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sonida Senior, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sonida Senior Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sonida Senior's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sonida Senior's historical news coverage. Sonida Senior's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.46 and 34.24, respectively. We have considered Sonida Senior's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sonida Senior is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sonida Senior Living is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sonida Senior Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sonida Senior is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sonida Senior backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sonida Senior, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 2.41 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.85 | 31.85 | 0.00 |
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Sonida Senior Hype Timeline
Sonida Senior Living is at this time traded for 31.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Sonida is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.38%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sonida Senior is about 2151.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.81. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.04. Sonida Senior Living last dividend was issued on the 14th of December 2020. The entity had 1:15 split on the 14th of December 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonida Senior to cross-verify your projections.Sonida Senior Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sonida Senior's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sonida Senior's future price movements. Getting to know how Sonida Senior's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sonida Senior may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TOI | Oncology Institute | (0.16) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.53 | (8.31) | 42.16 | |
| CYH | Community Health Systems | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.91 | (6.58) | 15.66 | |
| EHAB | Enhabit | (0.12) | 11 per month | 1.71 | 0.13 | 4.81 | (3.26) | 11.79 | |
| CMPS | Compass Pathways Plc | 0.44 | 8 per month | 4.79 | 0.02 | 8.25 | (5.73) | 28.62 | |
| OCGN | Ocugen Inc | 0.22 | 10 per month | 4.40 | (0.01) | 7.25 | (7.43) | 32.50 | |
| ANGO | AngioDynamics | (0.38) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.34 | (4.55) | 18.26 | |
| SY | So Young International | (0.38) | 18 per month | 5.29 | (0.01) | 7.04 | (8.60) | 31.96 | |
| FULC | Fulcrum Therapeutics | (0.59) | 9 per month | 4.57 | 0.05 | 11.56 | (7.84) | 53.80 | |
| LAB | Standard Biotools | (0.03) | 12 per month | 3.39 | 0.03 | 7.81 | (6.12) | 24.04 | |
| VREX | Varex Imaging Corp | (0.09) | 6 per month | 3.07 | 0.08 | 4.43 | (3.53) | 18.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sonida Senior
For every potential investor in Sonida, whether a beginner or expert, Sonida Senior's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sonida Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sonida. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sonida Senior's price trends.Sonida Senior Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sonida Senior stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sonida Senior could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sonida Senior by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sonida Senior Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sonida Senior stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sonida Senior shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sonida Senior stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sonida Senior Living entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sonida Senior Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sonida Senior's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sonida Senior's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sonida stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8146 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Variance | 5.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6636 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sonida Senior
The number of cover stories for Sonida Senior depends on current market conditions and Sonida Senior's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sonida Senior is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sonida Senior's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Sonida Senior Short Properties
Sonida Senior's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sonida Senior's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sonida Senior Living often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sonida Senior's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sonida Senior's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonida Senior to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sonida Senior. If investors know Sonida will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Sonida Senior assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Earnings Share (3.04) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.259 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Sonida Senior Living requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Sonida's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Sonida Senior's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Sonida Senior's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sonida Senior's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sonida Senior is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Sonida Senior's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.