Sonoco Products Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SON Stock | USD 48.60 0.16 0.33% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sonoco Products on the next trading day is expected to be 48.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45. Sonoco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Sonoco Products' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Sonoco Products' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sonoco Products fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Sonoco Products' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.413 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2005 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.6618 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.9608 | Wall Street Target Price 53.75 |
Using Sonoco Products hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sonoco Products from the perspective of Sonoco Products response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sonoco Products using Sonoco Products' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sonoco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sonoco Products' stock price.
Sonoco Products Short Interest
An investor who is long Sonoco Products may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sonoco Products and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sonoco Products with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 44.2578 | Short Percent 0.0728 | Short Ratio 6.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.2 M | 50 Day MA 43.2438 |
Sonoco Products Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sonoco Products' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sonoco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sonoco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sonoco Products. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Sonoco Products Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Sonoco Products' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sonoco Products stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sonoco Products' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sonoco Products stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sonoco Products' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sonoco Products on the next trading day is expected to be 48.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45. Sonoco Products after-hype prediction price | USD 48.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoco Products to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sonoco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sonoco Products will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Sonoco Products trading at USD 48.6, that is roughly USD 0.0118 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sonoco Products' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sonoco Products options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Sonoco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sonoco Products' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sonoco Products' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sonoco Products stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sonoco Products' open interest, investors have to compare it to Sonoco Products' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sonoco Products is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sonoco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Sonoco Products Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sonoco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sonoco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sonoco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sonoco Products Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Sonoco Products' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 329.8 M | Current Value 244.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 194.7 M |
Sonoco Products Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sonoco Products on the next trading day is expected to be 48.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sonoco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sonoco Products' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sonoco Products Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sonoco Products | Sonoco Products Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sonoco Products Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sonoco Products' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sonoco Products' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.16 and 49.96, respectively. We have considered Sonoco Products' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sonoco Products stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sonoco Products stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0146 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4664 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.4484 |
Predictive Modules for Sonoco Products
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sonoco Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sonoco Products After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sonoco Products at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sonoco Products or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sonoco Products, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sonoco Products Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sonoco Products' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sonoco Products' historical news coverage. Sonoco Products' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.33 and 50.13, respectively. We have considered Sonoco Products' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sonoco Products is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sonoco Products is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sonoco Products Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sonoco Products is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sonoco Products backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sonoco Products, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 1.40 | 0.42 | 0.17 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
48.60 | 48.73 | 0.87 |
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Sonoco Products Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Sonoco Products is traded for 48.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Sonoco is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 48.73 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 119.66%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.87%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Sonoco Products is about 302.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.77. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.31 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 163.94 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.53 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoco Products to cross-verify your projections.Sonoco Products Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sonoco Products' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sonoco Products' future price movements. Getting to know how Sonoco Products' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sonoco Products may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings | 0.82 | 10 per month | 3.04 | (0.03) | 2.44 | (2.84) | 15.21 | |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding | (0.26) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.59 | (3.21) | 17.54 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.84 | 10 per month | 1.12 | 0.16 | 2.61 | (2.01) | 5.52 | |
| SEE | Sealed Air | (0.53) | 12 per month | 0.57 | 0.1 | 2.13 | (1.69) | 19.98 | |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises A | 0.18 | 7 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 3.25 | (1.66) | 10.82 | |
| DORM | Dorman Products | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.69 | (2.64) | 13.70 | |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands | (1.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.87 | (4.81) | 13.84 | |
| SKY | Skyline | 3.86 | 11 per month | 2.08 | 0.09 | 4.86 | (3.89) | 14.49 | |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products | 0.25 | 12 per month | 1.20 | (0.03) | 2.08 | (1.56) | 9.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sonoco Products
For every potential investor in Sonoco, whether a beginner or expert, Sonoco Products' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sonoco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sonoco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sonoco Products' price trends.Sonoco Products Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sonoco Products stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sonoco Products could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sonoco Products by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sonoco Products Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sonoco Products stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sonoco Products shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sonoco Products stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sonoco Products entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sonoco Products Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sonoco Products' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sonoco Products' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sonoco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9763 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Variance | 2.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9532 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sonoco Products
The number of cover stories for Sonoco Products depends on current market conditions and Sonoco Products' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sonoco Products is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sonoco Products' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sonoco Products Short Properties
Sonoco Products' future price predictability will typically decrease when Sonoco Products' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sonoco Products often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sonoco Products' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sonoco Products' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 431 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoco Products to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Sonoco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Sonoco Products guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sonoco Products. If investors know Sonoco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sonoco Products listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.413 | Dividend Share 2.1 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.573 |
The market value of Sonoco Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sonoco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sonoco Products' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sonoco Products' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sonoco Products' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sonoco Products' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sonoco Products' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sonoco Products is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sonoco Products' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.