Sonae SGPS Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SON Stock | EUR 1.76 0.01 0.57% |
Sonae Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Sonae SGPS's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Sonae, making its price go up or down. Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sonae SGPS hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sonae SGPS SA from the perspective of Sonae SGPS response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sonae SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 1.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.83. Sonae SGPS after-hype prediction price | EUR 1.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sonae |
Sonae SGPS Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sonae price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sonae using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sonae charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sonae SGPS Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sonae SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 1.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sonae Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sonae SGPS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sonae SGPS Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sonae SGPS | Sonae SGPS Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sonae SGPS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sonae SGPS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sonae SGPS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.63 and 2.91, respectively. We have considered Sonae SGPS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sonae SGPS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sonae SGPS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0139 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8343 |
Predictive Modules for Sonae SGPS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sonae SGPS SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sonae SGPS After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sonae SGPS at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sonae SGPS or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sonae SGPS, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sonae SGPS Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sonae SGPS's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sonae SGPS's historical news coverage. Sonae SGPS's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.59 and 2.93, respectively. We have considered Sonae SGPS's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sonae SGPS is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sonae SGPS SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sonae SGPS Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sonae SGPS is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sonae SGPS backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sonae SGPS, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.76 | 1.76 | 0.00 |
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Sonae SGPS Hype Timeline
Sonae SGPS SA is at this time traded for 1.76on Euronext Lisbon of Portugal. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Sonae is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sonae SGPS is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.76. About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sonae SGPS SA last dividend was issued on the 12th of May 2022. The entity had 5:1 split on the 21st of June 2000. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonae SGPS to cross-verify your projections.Sonae SGPS Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sonae SGPS's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sonae SGPS's future price movements. Getting to know how Sonae SGPS's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sonae SGPS may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BCP | Banco Comercial Portugues | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.14 | 2.53 | (2.47) | 6.40 | |
| NOS | NOS SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | 0.17 | 1.92 | (1.18) | 4.56 | |
| NVG | The Navigator | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | 0.01 | 2.23 | (1.23) | 4.84 | |
| ALTR | Altri SGPS SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.85 | (2.24) | 5.38 | |
| GALP | Galp Energia SGPS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.61 | (2.37) | 18.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sonae SGPS
For every potential investor in Sonae, whether a beginner or expert, Sonae SGPS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sonae Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sonae. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sonae SGPS's price trends.Sonae SGPS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sonae SGPS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sonae SGPS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sonae SGPS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sonae SGPS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sonae SGPS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sonae SGPS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sonae SGPS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sonae SGPS SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sonae SGPS Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sonae SGPS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sonae SGPS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sonae stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8725 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5504 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3029 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.27) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sonae SGPS
The number of cover stories for Sonae SGPS depends on current market conditions and Sonae SGPS's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sonae SGPS is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sonae SGPS's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Sonae Stock Analysis
When running Sonae SGPS's price analysis, check to measure Sonae SGPS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sonae SGPS is operating at the current time. Most of Sonae SGPS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sonae SGPS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sonae SGPS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sonae SGPS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.