Shield On Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

SOSS Stock  IDR 675.00  75.00  10.00%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shield On Service on the next trading day is expected to be 653.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 33.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,978. Shield Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Shield On works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Shield On Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shield On Service on the next trading day is expected to be 653.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 33.53, mean absolute percentage error of 2,643, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,978.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shield Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shield On's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shield On Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shield On Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shield On's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shield On's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 645.89 and 661.40, respectively. We have considered Shield On's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
675.00
645.89
Downside
653.65
Expected Value
661.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shield On stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shield On stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.626
MADMean absolute deviation33.5297
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0493
SAESum of the absolute errors1978.2534
When Shield On Service prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Shield On Service trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Shield On observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Shield On

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shield On Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
667.23675.00682.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
580.65588.42742.50
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Shield On

For every potential investor in Shield, whether a beginner or expert, Shield On's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shield Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shield. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shield On's price trends.

Shield On Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shield On stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shield On could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shield On by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shield On Service Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shield On's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shield On's current price.

Shield On Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shield On stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shield On shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shield On stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shield On Service entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shield On Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shield On's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shield On's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shield stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Shield Stock

Shield On financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shield Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shield with respect to the benefits of owning Shield On security.