Sequans Communications Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SQNS Stock | USD 4.96 0.35 6.59% |
Sequans Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Sequans Communications' share price is approaching 40. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sequans Communications, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.50) | EPS Estimate Current Year (4.80) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.06) | Wall Street Target Price 20 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.80) |
Using Sequans Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sequans Communications SA from the perspective of Sequans Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sequans Communications using Sequans Communications' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sequans using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sequans Communications' stock price.
Sequans Communications Short Interest
An investor who is long Sequans Communications may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sequans Communications and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sequans Communications with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.6137 | Short Percent 0.1636 | Short Ratio 2.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 501.5 K | 50 Day MA 5.5544 |
Sequans Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sequans Communications SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.62.Sequans Communications Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sequans Communications' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sequans. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sequans can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sequans Communications SA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sequans Communications' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sequans Communications.
Sequans Communications Implied Volatility | 1.1 |
Sequans Communications' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sequans Communications SA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sequans Communications' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sequans Communications stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sequans Communications' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sequans Communications SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.62. Sequans Communications after-hype prediction price | USD 4.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sequans Communications to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sequans contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sequans Communications SA will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0688% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Sequans Communications trading at USD 4.96, that is roughly USD 0.00341 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sequans Communications' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sequans Communications SA options at the current volatility level of 1.1%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Sequans Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sequans Communications' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sequans Communications' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sequans Communications stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sequans Communications' open interest, investors have to compare it to Sequans Communications' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sequans Communications is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sequans. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Sequans Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sequans price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sequans using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sequans charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Sequans Communications' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 18.6 M | Current Value 13.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 24.9 M |
Sequans Communications Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sequans Communications SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sequans Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sequans Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sequans Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sequans Communications | Sequans Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sequans Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sequans Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sequans Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.16 and 9.43, respectively. We have considered Sequans Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sequans Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sequans Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.077 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2888 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0498 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.6163 |
Predictive Modules for Sequans Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sequans Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sequans Communications After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sequans Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sequans Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sequans Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sequans Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sequans Communications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sequans Communications' historical news coverage. Sequans Communications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 9.38, respectively. We have considered Sequans Communications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sequans Communications is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sequans Communications is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sequans Communications Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sequans Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sequans Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sequans Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.61 | 4.63 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.96 | 4.75 | 4.23 |
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Sequans Communications Hype Timeline
Sequans Communications is at this time traded for 4.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Sequans is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.23%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.61%. The volatility of related hype on Sequans Communications is about 3826.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.03. About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 2.0. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sequans Communications last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2019. The entity had 1:10 split on the 17th of September 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sequans Communications to cross-verify your projections.Sequans Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sequans Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sequans Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how Sequans Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sequans Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AXTI | AXT Inc | 0.35 | 10 per month | 5.45 | 0.28 | 16.99 | (9.58) | 35.11 | |
| VLN | Valens | 0.01 | 7 per month | 4.20 | 0.04 | 7.65 | (6.85) | 69.66 | |
| DVLT | Datavault AI | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 42.57 | (17.34) | 72.53 | |
| LTRX | Lantronix | 0.75 | 9 per month | 3.16 | 0.11 | 6.15 | (5.59) | 21.11 | |
| TCX | Tucows Inc | 0.42 | 12 per month | 2.27 | 0.12 | 5.31 | (4.30) | 13.11 | |
| KULR | KULR Technology Group | (0.09) | 11 per month | 5.42 | (0.01) | 13.83 | (8.81) | 27.63 | |
| ZEPP | Zepp Health Corp | (0.78) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 10.70 | (13.63) | 32.17 | |
| CCRD | CoreCard Corp | 0.88 | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.18 | (2.96) | 16.08 | |
| ARAI | Arrive AI | (0.28) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.15 | (10.73) | 21.54 | |
| WALD | Waldencast Acquisition Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 4.15 | (0.01) | 9.57 | (6.49) | 33.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sequans Communications
For every potential investor in Sequans, whether a beginner or expert, Sequans Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sequans Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sequans. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sequans Communications' price trends.Sequans Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sequans Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sequans Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sequans Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sequans Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sequans Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sequans Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sequans Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sequans Communications SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sequans Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sequans Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sequans Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sequans stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.57 | |||
| Variance | 20.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sequans Communications
The number of cover stories for Sequans Communications depends on current market conditions and Sequans Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sequans Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sequans Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sequans Communications Short Properties
Sequans Communications' future price predictability will typically decrease when Sequans Communications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sequans Communications SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sequans Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sequans Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 62.1 M |
Additional Tools for Sequans Stock Analysis
When running Sequans Communications' price analysis, check to measure Sequans Communications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sequans Communications is operating at the current time. Most of Sequans Communications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sequans Communications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sequans Communications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sequans Communications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.