Sasol Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| SSL Stock | USD 7.47 0.42 5.96% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sasol on the next trading day is expected to be 7.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.79. Sasol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Sasol's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Sasol's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sasol fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Sasol's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.4942 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5679 | Wall Street Target Price 6.81 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
Using Sasol hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sasol from the perspective of Sasol response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sasol using Sasol's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sasol using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sasol's stock price.
Sasol Short Interest
An investor who is long Sasol may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sasol and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sasol with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.5233 | Short Percent 0.0063 | Short Ratio 4.54 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.4 M | 50 Day MA 6.5636 |
Sasol Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sasol's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sasol. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sasol can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sasol. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Sasol Implied Volatility | 1.35 |
Sasol's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sasol stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sasol's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sasol stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sasol's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sasol on the next trading day is expected to be 7.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.79. Sasol after-hype prediction price | USD 7.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sasol to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Sasol Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sasol's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sasol's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sasol stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sasol's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sasol's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sasol is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sasol. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Sasol Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sasol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sasol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sasol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sasol Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sasol on the next trading day is expected to be 7.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sasol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sasol's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sasol Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sasol | Sasol Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sasol Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sasol's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sasol's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.97 and 10.77, respectively. We have considered Sasol's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sasol stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sasol stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6999 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2425 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0367 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.7924 |
Predictive Modules for Sasol
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sasol. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sasol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sasol After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sasol at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sasol or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sasol, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sasol Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sasol's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sasol's historical news coverage. Sasol's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.72 and 10.36, respectively. We have considered Sasol's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sasol is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sasol is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sasol Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sasol is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sasol backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sasol, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 3.40 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.47 | 7.04 | 0.14 |
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Sasol Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Sasol is traded for 7.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Sasol is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Sasol is about 354.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.77. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.43. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sasol has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.14. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2024. The firm had 1:5 split on the 9th of May 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sasol to cross-verify your projections.Sasol Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sasol's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sasol's future price movements. Getting to know how Sasol's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sasol may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CBT | Cabot | (0.09) | 10 per month | 1.86 | (0) | 3.72 | (2.71) | 8.68 | |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies | 0.18 | 10 per month | 1.73 | (0.02) | 2.93 | (2.57) | 9.55 | |
| CE | Celanese | 2.10 | 11 per month | 2.79 | 0.06 | 6.75 | (5.28) | 20.15 | |
| PRM | Perimeter Solutions SA | (0.11) | 10 per month | 2.48 | 0.09 | 3.38 | (3.85) | 30.19 | |
| FUL | H B Fuller | 2.06 | 11 per month | 1.53 | (0.02) | 3.48 | (2.38) | 8.23 | |
| BCPC | Balchem | 2.79 | 13 per month | 0.81 | 0.08 | 3.76 | (1.53) | 7.13 | |
| AVNT | Avient Corp | (0.09) | 10 per month | 1.35 | 0.11 | 3.41 | (2.45) | 8.87 | |
| HWKN | Hawkins | (3.37) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.29 | (4.40) | 10.09 | |
| WDFC | WD 40 Company | 6.16 | 6 per month | 1.91 | 0.04 | 2.86 | (2.98) | 10.75 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | (0.03) | 12 per month | 1.18 | 0.11 | 2.69 | (2.56) | 7.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sasol
For every potential investor in Sasol, whether a beginner or expert, Sasol's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sasol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sasol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sasol's price trends.Sasol Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sasol stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sasol could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sasol by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sasol Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sasol stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sasol shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sasol stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sasol entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 85167.68 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.5 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.28 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.42 |
Sasol Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sasol's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sasol's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sasol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.9 | |||
| Variance | 15.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sasol
The number of cover stories for Sasol depends on current market conditions and Sasol's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sasol is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sasol's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sasol Short Properties
Sasol's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sasol's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sasol often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sasol's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sasol's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 640.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sasol to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Sasol Stock please use our How to buy in Sasol Stock guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Diversified Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sasol. If investors know Sasol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sasol listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | Earnings Share 0.64 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Sasol is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sasol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sasol's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sasol's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sasol's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sasol's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sasol's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sasol is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sasol's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.