Steel Dynamics Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| STLD Stock | USD 174.28 0.96 0.55% |
Steel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Steel Dynamics stock prices and determine the direction of Steel Dynamics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Steel Dynamics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Steel Dynamics' share price is at 52. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Steel Dynamics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.337 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.5221 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.1508 | EPS Estimate Next Year 15.3636 | Wall Street Target Price 191.6446 |
Using Steel Dynamics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Steel Dynamics from the perspective of Steel Dynamics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Steel Dynamics using Steel Dynamics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Steel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Steel Dynamics' stock price.
Steel Dynamics Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Steel Dynamics' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Steel. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Steel Dynamics stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 142.459 | Short Percent 0.0347 | Short Ratio 3.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.1 M | 50 Day MA 168.4314 |
Steel Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Steel Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 173.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.60.Steel Dynamics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Steel Dynamics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Steel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Steel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Steel Dynamics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Steel Dynamics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Steel Dynamics.
Steel Dynamics Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
Steel Dynamics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Steel Dynamics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Steel Dynamics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Steel Dynamics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Steel Dynamics' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Steel Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 173.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.60. Steel Dynamics after-hype prediction price | USD 174.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steel Dynamics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Steel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Steel Dynamics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Steel Dynamics trading at USD 174.28, that is roughly USD 0.0654 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Steel Dynamics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Steel Dynamics options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Steel Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Steel Dynamics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Steel Dynamics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Steel Dynamics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Steel Dynamics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Steel Dynamics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Steel Dynamics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Steel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Steel Dynamics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Steel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Steel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Steel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Steel Dynamics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Steel Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 173.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52, mean absolute percentage error of 10.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Steel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Steel Dynamics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Steel Dynamics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Steel Dynamics | Steel Dynamics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Steel Dynamics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Steel Dynamics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Steel Dynamics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 172.15 and 175.79, respectively. We have considered Steel Dynamics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Steel Dynamics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Steel Dynamics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3703 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5186 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 148.5993 |
Predictive Modules for Steel Dynamics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Steel Dynamics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Steel Dynamics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Steel Dynamics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Steel Dynamics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Steel Dynamics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Steel Dynamics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Steel Dynamics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Steel Dynamics' historical news coverage. Steel Dynamics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 172.48 and 176.12, respectively. We have considered Steel Dynamics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Steel Dynamics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Steel Dynamics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Steel Dynamics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Steel Dynamics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Steel Dynamics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Steel Dynamics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.82 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
174.28 | 174.30 | 0.01 |
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Steel Dynamics Hype Timeline
Steel Dynamics is at this time traded for 174.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Steel is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 174.3 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Steel Dynamics is about 238.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 174.37. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 17.54 B. Net Income was 1.55 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.3 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steel Dynamics to cross-verify your projections.Steel Dynamics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Steel Dynamics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Steel Dynamics' future price movements. Getting to know how Steel Dynamics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Steel Dynamics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 1.77 | 7 per month | 1.21 | 0.16 | 3.86 | (2.59) | 8.47 | |
| RS | Reliance Steel Aluminum | 3.80 | 7 per month | 0.75 | 0.14 | 2.67 | (1.55) | 5.44 | |
| PKX | POSCO Holdings | (0.46) | 13 per month | 1.78 | 0.09 | 5.01 | (3.37) | 18.39 | |
| PPG | PPG Industries | 0.98 | 11 per month | 1.44 | 0.04 | 2.31 | (1.72) | 7.74 | |
| MT | ArcelorMittal SA ADR | 0.83 | 11 per month | 0.82 | 0.27 | 3.96 | (1.87) | 5.69 | |
| TECK | Teck Resources Ltd | 1.18 | 9 per month | 1.98 | 0.14 | 4.10 | (3.73) | 8.88 | |
| NTR | Nutrien | (0.27) | 7 per month | 1.59 | 0.14 | 3.45 | (2.65) | 10.08 | |
| TX | Ternium SA ADR | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.14 | 3.07 | (2.64) | 8.99 | |
| AMRZ | Amrize | (0.62) | 8 per month | 1.52 | 0.05 | 3.46 | (2.58) | 8.15 | |
| KGC | Kinross Gold | 0.41 | 7 per month | 1.95 | 0.26 | 5.44 | (3.98) | 12.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Steel Dynamics
For every potential investor in Steel, whether a beginner or expert, Steel Dynamics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Steel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Steel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Steel Dynamics' price trends.Steel Dynamics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Steel Dynamics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Steel Dynamics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Steel Dynamics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Steel Dynamics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Steel Dynamics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Steel Dynamics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Steel Dynamics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Steel Dynamics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Steel Dynamics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Steel Dynamics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Steel Dynamics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting steel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Steel Dynamics
The number of cover stories for Steel Dynamics depends on current market conditions and Steel Dynamics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Steel Dynamics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Steel Dynamics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Steel Dynamics Short Properties
Steel Dynamics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Steel Dynamics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Steel Dynamics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Steel Dynamics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Steel Dynamics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 737.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steel Dynamics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Steel Stock refer to our How to Trade Steel Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Steel Dynamics. If investors know Steel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Steel Dynamics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.337 | Earnings Share 7.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.112 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Steel Dynamics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Steel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Steel Dynamics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Steel Dynamics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Steel Dynamics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Steel Dynamics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Steel Dynamics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Steel Dynamics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Steel Dynamics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.