HG Holdings OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

STLY Stock  USD 5.00  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of HG Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 4.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.80. STLY OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of HG Holdings' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the otc stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
HG Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of HG Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of HG Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of HG Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from HG Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with HG Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of HG Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using HG Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HG Holdings from the perspective of HG Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of HG Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 4.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.80.

HG Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HG Holdings to cross-verify your projections.

HG Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine STLY price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for STLY using various technical indicators. When you analyze STLY charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for HG Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of HG Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

HG Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of HG Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 4.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict STLY OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HG Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

HG Holdings OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest HG HoldingsHG Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

HG Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting HG Holdings' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HG Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.71 and 8.09, respectively. We have considered HG Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.00
4.90
Expected Value
8.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HG Holdings otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HG Holdings otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.1667
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0787
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0168
SAESum of the absolute errors4.8007
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of HG Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict HG Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for HG Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HG Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.815.008.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.844.037.22
Details

HG Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of HG Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HG Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of HG Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

HG Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting HG Holdings' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HG Holdings' historical news coverage. HG Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.81 and 8.19, respectively. We have considered HG Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.00
5.00
After-hype Price
8.19
Upside
HG Holdings is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HG Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

HG Holdings OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as HG Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HG Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HG Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
3.19
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.00
5.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

HG Holdings Hype Timeline

HG Holdings is at this time traded for 5.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. STLY is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on HG Holdings is about 17722.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.00. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.76. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. HG Holdings last dividend was issued on the 8th of November 2016. The entity had 1:12 split on the 21st of July 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HG Holdings to cross-verify your projections.

HG Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to HG Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HG Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how HG Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HG Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ELLHElah Holdings 0.06 4 per month 0.00 (0.11) 3.69 (5.17) 12.29 
TCRITechCom 0.06 8 per month 14.18  0.12  15.79 (40.00) 4,140 
NHICNewHold Investment Corp 0.00 5 per month 0.00 (0.33) 0.39 (0.19) 1.66 
SLTNSilverton Energy 0.00 0 per month 13.62  0.13  26.67 (14.40) 255.77 
EBSHEmpire Bancshares 0.06 8 per month 0.00 (0.49) 0.00  0.00  1.21 
TRXATrex Acquisition Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.13  0.00  0.00  257.16 
SSHTWireless Data Solutions 0.00 0 per month 21.37  0.06  66.47 (28.57) 283.91 
MGTEMarblegate Capital 0.00 0 per month 4.87  0.07  7.23 (7.89) 27.23 
CBFCCNB Financial Services 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.10  0.00  0.00  38.45 
WRPTWarpSpeed Taxi 0.00 0 per month 9.38  0.08  36.14 (26.32) 127.78 

Other Forecasting Options for HG Holdings

For every potential investor in STLY, whether a beginner or expert, HG Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. STLY OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in STLY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HG Holdings' price trends.

HG Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HG Holdings otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HG Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HG Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

HG Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HG Holdings otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HG Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HG Holdings otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HG Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

HG Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of HG Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HG Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stly otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for HG Holdings

The number of cover stories for HG Holdings depends on current market conditions and HG Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HG Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HG Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Additional Tools for STLY OTC Stock Analysis

When running HG Holdings' price analysis, check to measure HG Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HG Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of HG Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HG Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HG Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HG Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.