Stoke Therapeutics Stock Forward View
| STOK Stock | USD 31.91 0.02 0.06% |
Stoke Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the rsi of Stoke Therapeutics' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Stoke Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stoke Therapeutics from the perspective of Stoke Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stoke Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 32.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.20. Stoke Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 32.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stoke Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Stoke Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Stoke price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stoke using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stoke charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Stoke Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stoke Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 32.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87, mean absolute percentage error of 1.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stoke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stoke Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stoke Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Stoke Therapeutics | Stoke Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Stoke Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stoke Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stoke Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.20 and 36.41, respectively. We have considered Stoke Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stoke Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stoke Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4008 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0275 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.2008 |
Predictive Modules for Stoke Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stoke Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Stoke Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Stoke Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stoke Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stoke Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Stoke Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Stoke Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stoke Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Stoke Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.97 and 36.17, respectively. We have considered Stoke Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Stoke Therapeutics is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stoke Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Stoke Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stoke Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stoke Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stoke Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.91 | 32.07 | 0.50 |
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Stoke Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Stoke Therapeutics is at this time traded for 31.91. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Stoke is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 32.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.5%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Stoke Therapeutics is about 13666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.92. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 36.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (88.98 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 205.63 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stoke Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Stoke Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Stoke Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stoke Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Stoke Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stoke Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NTLA | Intellia Therapeutics | (1.15) | 10 per month | 4.21 | 0.07 | 10.12 | (6.81) | 23.60 | |
| UPB | Upstream Bio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.84 | (12.87) | 57.85 | |
| ARDX | Ardelyx | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.87 | 0.06 | 5.49 | (4.65) | 25.22 | |
| SYRE | Spyre Therapeutics | 0.14 | 8 per month | 2.45 | 0.21 | 7.15 | (4.47) | 20.03 | |
| WVE | Wave Life Sciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.73 | 0.1 | 6.72 | (5.96) | 164.47 | |
| ZYME | Zymeworks Common Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.39 | (4.28) | 12.44 | |
| PHVS | Pharvaris BV | 0.16 | 7 per month | 3.45 | 0.06 | 6.58 | (6.01) | 27.81 | |
| NVAX | Novavax | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.11 | 0.08 | 6.10 | (5.95) | 26.98 | |
| BCRX | BioCryst Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.43 | (4.19) | 16.75 | |
| ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma Common | 1.15 | 12 per month | 11.64 | 0.02 | 12.20 | (11.66) | 68.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stoke Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Stoke, whether a beginner or expert, Stoke Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stoke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stoke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stoke Therapeutics' price trends.Stoke Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stoke Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stoke Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stoke Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stoke Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stoke Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stoke Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stoke Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stoke Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Stoke Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stoke Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stoke Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stoke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.1 | |||
| Variance | 16.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stoke Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Stoke Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Stoke Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stoke Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stoke Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Stoke Therapeutics Short Properties
Stoke Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Stoke Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stoke Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stoke Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stoke Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 216.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stoke Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Stoke Stock please use our How to buy in Stoke Stock guide.You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stoke Therapeutics. If investors know Stoke will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Stoke Therapeutics assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate Stoke Therapeutics using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Stoke Therapeutics' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Stoke Therapeutics' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stoke Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stoke Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Stoke Therapeutics' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.