Stratus Properties Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

STRS Stock  USD 28.70  2.64  10.13%   
Stratus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Stratus Properties' stock price is slightly above 67. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Stratus, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Stratus Properties' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Stratus Properties and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Stratus Properties' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Stratus Properties, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Stratus Properties' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.74)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.44)
Using Stratus Properties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stratus Properties from the perspective of Stratus Properties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Stratus Relative Strength Index

The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stratus Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 28.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.09.

Stratus Properties Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Stratus Properties' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Stratus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Stratus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Stratus Properties. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Stratus Properties' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Stratus Properties.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stratus Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 28.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.09.

Stratus Properties after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.7  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stratus Properties to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Stratus Stock please use our How to Invest in Stratus Properties guide.

Stratus Properties Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Stratus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stratus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stratus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Stratus Properties simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Stratus Properties are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Stratus Properties prices get older.

Stratus Properties Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stratus Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 28.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stratus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stratus Properties' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stratus Properties Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Stratus Properties  Stratus Properties Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Stratus Properties Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Stratus Properties' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stratus Properties' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.43 and 31.97, respectively. We have considered Stratus Properties' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.70
28.70
Expected Value
31.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stratus Properties stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stratus Properties stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5176
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1621
MADMean absolute deviation0.5097
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0217
SAESum of the absolute errors31.09
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Stratus Properties forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Stratus Properties observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Stratus Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stratus Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.4628.7031.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.6230.8634.10
Details

Stratus Properties After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Stratus Properties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stratus Properties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stratus Properties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Stratus Properties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Stratus Properties' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stratus Properties' historical news coverage. Stratus Properties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.46 and 31.94, respectively. We have considered Stratus Properties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
28.70
28.70
After-hype Price
31.94
Upside
Stratus Properties is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stratus Properties is based on 3 months time horizon.

Stratus Properties Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stratus Properties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stratus Properties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stratus Properties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.76 
3.27
  0.03 
  0.06 
17 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 17 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.70
28.70
0.00 
8,175  
Notes

Stratus Properties Hype Timeline

Stratus Properties is at this time traded for 28.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Stratus is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.76%. %. The volatility of related hype on Stratus Properties is about 4139.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.64. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.12. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Stratus Properties recorded a loss per share of 0.43. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of September 2022. The firm had 1:2 split on the 29th of May 2001. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 17 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stratus Properties to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Stratus Stock please use our How to Invest in Stratus Properties guide.

Stratus Properties Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Stratus Properties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stratus Properties' future price movements. Getting to know how Stratus Properties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stratus Properties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CHCIComstock Holding Companies 0.56 8 per month 0.00 (0.08) 6.31 (5.82) 25.16 
JFBJFB Construction Holdings(0.84)8 per month 4.96  0.19  13.60 (8.30) 33.08 
MDVModiv Inc 0.03 9 per month 1.05 (0.01) 2.23 (2.16) 7.01 
RMAXRe Max Holding(0.05)9 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.56 (4.11) 14.02 
STRWStrawberry Fields REIT(0.08)8 per month 1.75  0.06  2.93 (2.94) 9.86 
BEEPMobile Infrastructure(0.24)8 per month 0.00 (0.09) 7.12 (7.25) 18.98 
BHRBraemar Hotel Resorts 0.03 11 per month 2.18  0.02  4.83 (3.83) 12.09 
SEVNSeven Hills Realty 0.21 6 per month 0.00 (0.18) 2.91 (3.40) 8.39 
AMBRAmber International Holding(0.13)8 per month 6.48  0.06  15.03 (12.39) 70.67 
ACRAcres Commercial Realty(0.28)19 per month 1.71 (0.03) 2.95 (2.96) 14.67 

Other Forecasting Options for Stratus Properties

For every potential investor in Stratus, whether a beginner or expert, Stratus Properties' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stratus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stratus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stratus Properties' price trends.

Stratus Properties Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stratus Properties stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stratus Properties could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stratus Properties by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Stratus Properties Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stratus Properties stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stratus Properties shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stratus Properties stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stratus Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Stratus Properties Risk Indicators

The analysis of Stratus Properties' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stratus Properties' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stratus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Stratus Properties

The number of cover stories for Stratus Properties depends on current market conditions and Stratus Properties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stratus Properties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stratus Properties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Stratus Properties Short Properties

Stratus Properties' future price predictability will typically decrease when Stratus Properties' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stratus Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stratus Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stratus Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding8.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments20.2 M

Additional Tools for Stratus Stock Analysis

When running Stratus Properties' price analysis, check to measure Stratus Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Stratus Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Stratus Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Stratus Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Stratus Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Stratus Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.