Strattec Security Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

STRT Stock  USD 82.50  1.03  1.26%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Strattec Security on the next trading day is expected to be 82.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.12. Strattec Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Strattec Security's share price is at 56. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Strattec Security, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 56

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Strattec Security's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Strattec Security, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Strattec Security's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.25
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.99
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.4
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.79
Wall Street Target Price
89
Using Strattec Security hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Strattec Security from the perspective of Strattec Security response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Strattec Security Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Strattec Security's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Strattec. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Strattec can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Strattec Security. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Strattec Security on the next trading day is expected to be 82.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.12.

Strattec Security after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 82.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Strattec Security to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Strattec Stock please use our How to Invest in Strattec Security guide.

Strattec Security Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Strattec price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Strattec using various technical indicators. When you analyze Strattec charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Strattec Security is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Strattec Security Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Strattec Security on the next trading day is expected to be 82.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.67, mean absolute percentage error of 4.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Strattec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Strattec Security's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Strattec Security Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Strattec SecurityStrattec Security Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Strattec Security Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Strattec Security's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Strattec Security's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.17 and 85.83, respectively. We have considered Strattec Security's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
82.50
82.50
Expected Value
85.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Strattec Security stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Strattec Security stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.85
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3817
MADMean absolute deviation1.6687
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0226
SAESum of the absolute errors100.12
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Strattec Security price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Strattec Security. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Strattec Security

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Strattec Security. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
79.1782.5085.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
75.0578.3890.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
74.1079.4584.81
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
80.9989.0098.79
Details

Strattec Security After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Strattec Security at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Strattec Security or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Strattec Security, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Strattec Security Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Strattec Security's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Strattec Security's historical news coverage. Strattec Security's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 79.17 and 85.83, respectively. We have considered Strattec Security's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
82.50
82.50
After-hype Price
85.83
Upside
Strattec Security is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Strattec Security is based on 3 months time horizon.

Strattec Security Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Strattec Security is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Strattec Security backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Strattec Security, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.41 
3.33
  0.47 
  0.04 
18 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 18 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
82.50
82.50
0.00 
292.11  
Notes

Strattec Security Hype Timeline

Strattec Security is at this time traded for 82.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.47, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Strattec is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on Strattec Security is about 3112.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 82.54. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Strattec Security has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.39. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.73. The firm last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 18 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Strattec Security to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Strattec Stock please use our How to Invest in Strattec Security guide.

Strattec Security Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Strattec Security's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Strattec Security's future price movements. Getting to know how Strattec Security's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Strattec Security may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HLLYHolley Inc 0.14 7 per month 1.81  0.12  5.51 (3.70) 38.65 
WEYSWeyco Group 0.04 4 per month 3.05  0.03  4.68 (2.83) 27.19 
GAMBGambling Group 0.01 8 per month 0.00 (0.18) 3.58 (4.36) 26.59 
LOCOEl Pollo Loco(0.04)12 per month 1.84  0.06  3.20 (2.73) 16.59 
MPAAMotorcar Parts of(0.08)9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 4.55 (3.90) 30.59 
MOVMovado Group 0.19 11 per month 1.65  0.13  4.91 (3.10) 10.76 
DENNDennys Corp(0.12)9 per month 1.78  0.06  2.24 (4.27) 51.18 
RICKRCI Hospitality Holdings 0.99 10 per month 0.00 (0.05) 4.38 (4.42) 19.06 
MPXMarine Products(0.10)4 per month 2.24  0.06  3.28 (3.41) 10.53 
FLWS1 800 FLOWERSCOM 0.04 11 per month 6.04  0.01  8.43 (7.97) 43.73 

Other Forecasting Options for Strattec Security

For every potential investor in Strattec, whether a beginner or expert, Strattec Security's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Strattec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Strattec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Strattec Security's price trends.

Strattec Security Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Strattec Security stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Strattec Security could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Strattec Security by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Strattec Security Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Strattec Security stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Strattec Security shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Strattec Security stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Strattec Security entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Strattec Security Risk Indicators

The analysis of Strattec Security's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Strattec Security's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting strattec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Strattec Security

The number of cover stories for Strattec Security depends on current market conditions and Strattec Security's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Strattec Security is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Strattec Security's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Strattec Security Short Properties

Strattec Security's future price predictability will typically decrease when Strattec Security's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Strattec Security often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Strattec Security's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Strattec Security's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments84.6 M

Additional Tools for Strattec Stock Analysis

When running Strattec Security's price analysis, check to measure Strattec Security's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Strattec Security is operating at the current time. Most of Strattec Security's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Strattec Security's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Strattec Security's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Strattec Security to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.