El Pollo Loco Stock Price Prediction
| LOCO Stock | USD 12.76 0.46 3.74% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.15 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8275 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.94 | Wall Street Target Price 14 |
Using El Pollo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of El Pollo Loco from the perspective of El Pollo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
El Pollo Loco Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to El Pollo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in LOCO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding LOCO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around El Pollo Loco. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of El Pollo's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about El Pollo.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in El Pollo to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying LOCO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
El Pollo after-hype prediction price | USD 12.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
LOCO |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of El Pollo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
El Pollo After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of El Pollo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in El Pollo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of El Pollo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
El Pollo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting El Pollo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on El Pollo's historical news coverage. El Pollo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.67 and 13.99, respectively. We have considered El Pollo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
El Pollo is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of El Pollo Loco is based on 3 months time horizon.
El Pollo Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as El Pollo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading El Pollo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with El Pollo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.66 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.76 | 12.33 | 0.24 |
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El Pollo Hype Timeline
El Pollo Loco is now traded for 12.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. LOCO is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 12.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on El Pollo is about 2725.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.75. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 468.66 M. Net Income was 25.55 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 83.7 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out El Pollo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.El Pollo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to El Pollo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict El Pollo's future price movements. Getting to know how El Pollo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how El Pollo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHUY | Chuys Holdings | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.67 | (0.27) | 48.46 | |
| FATBB | FAT Brands | (0.07) | 4 per month | 4.32 | (0.01) | 8.53 | (10.10) | 24.95 | |
| PBPB | Potbelly Co | (0.19) | 6 per month | 1.57 | 0.08 | 4.24 | (3.01) | 24.84 | |
| BJRI | BJs Restaurants | (0.88) | 8 per month | 2.27 | 0.03 | 4.05 | (2.64) | 13.19 | |
| STKS | One Group Hospitality | (0.16) | 9 per month | 4.38 | (0.03) | 6.80 | (5.03) | 28.29 | |
| FRGI | Fiesta Restaurant Group | (0.22) | 1 per month | 2.75 | (0.05) | 4.69 | (3.69) | 12.75 | |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global | 2.54 | 10 per month | 2.87 | (0) | 4.47 | (4.50) | 19.97 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | (1.28) | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.35 | 5.04 | (2.48) | 11.91 | |
| RUTH | Ruths Hospitality Group | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.07 | 1.75 | (2.63) | 34.37 | |
| BLMN | Bloomin Brands | 0.21 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.57 | (4.86) | 17.72 | |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory | (0.56) | 8 per month | 1.63 | 0.08 | 5.11 | (3.10) | 13.08 |
El Pollo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LOCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LOCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze LOCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About El Pollo Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of El Pollo stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as El Pollo Loco, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of El Pollo based on analysis of El Pollo hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to El Pollo's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to El Pollo's related companies. | 2013 | 2014 | 2019 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 6.85 | 6.2 | 8.02 | 6.02 | PTB Ratio | 17.75 | 3.06 | 1.24 | 4.61 |
Story Coverage note for El Pollo
The number of cover stories for El Pollo depends on current market conditions and El Pollo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that El Pollo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about El Pollo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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El Pollo Short Properties
El Pollo's future price predictability will typically decrease when El Pollo's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of El Pollo Loco often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential El Pollo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. El Pollo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.3 M |
Check out El Pollo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of El Pollo. If investors know LOCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about El Pollo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Earnings Share 0.79 | Revenue Per Share 15.422 | Return On Assets 0.0435 | Return On Equity 0.0937 |
The market value of El Pollo Loco is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LOCO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of El Pollo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is El Pollo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because El Pollo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect El Pollo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between El Pollo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if El Pollo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, El Pollo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.