Strawberry Fields Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

STRW Stock  USD 12.89  0.43  3.23%   
Strawberry Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Strawberry Fields' share price is at 51. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Strawberry Fields, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Strawberry Fields' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Strawberry Fields and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Strawberry Fields' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Strawberry Fields REIT, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Strawberry Fields' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.143
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.1333
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.59
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.69
Wall Street Target Price
13.8571
Using Strawberry Fields hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Strawberry Fields REIT from the perspective of Strawberry Fields response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Strawberry Fields REIT on the next trading day is expected to be 12.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.87.

Strawberry Fields after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.34  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Strawberry Fields to cross-verify your projections.

Strawberry Fields Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Strawberry price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Strawberry using various technical indicators. When you analyze Strawberry charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Strawberry Fields works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Strawberry Fields Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Strawberry Fields REIT on the next trading day is expected to be 12.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Strawberry Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Strawberry Fields' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Strawberry Fields Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Strawberry Fields  Strawberry Fields Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Strawberry Fields Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Strawberry Fields' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Strawberry Fields' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.17 and 14.65, respectively. We have considered Strawberry Fields' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.89
12.91
Expected Value
14.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Strawberry Fields stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Strawberry Fields stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0434
MADMean absolute deviation0.1672
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors9.8662
When Strawberry Fields REIT prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Strawberry Fields REIT trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Strawberry Fields observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Strawberry Fields

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Strawberry Fields REIT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.6013.3415.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.5414.2816.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.8313.1913.54
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.6113.8615.38
Details

Strawberry Fields After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Strawberry Fields at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Strawberry Fields or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Strawberry Fields, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Strawberry Fields Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Strawberry Fields' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Strawberry Fields' historical news coverage. Strawberry Fields' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.60 and 15.08, respectively. We have considered Strawberry Fields' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.89
13.34
After-hype Price
15.08
Upside
Strawberry Fields is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Strawberry Fields REIT is based on 3 months time horizon.

Strawberry Fields Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Strawberry Fields is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Strawberry Fields backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Strawberry Fields, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.28 
1.74
  0.02 
  0.01 
7 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.89
13.34
0.15 
2,486  
Notes

Strawberry Fields Hype Timeline

Strawberry Fields REIT is at this time traded for 12.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Strawberry is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is forecasted to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Strawberry Fields is about 9157.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.88. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 117.06 M. Net Income was 26.5 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 129.75 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Strawberry Fields to cross-verify your projections.

Strawberry Fields Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Strawberry Fields' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Strawberry Fields' future price movements. Getting to know how Strawberry Fields' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Strawberry Fields may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SEVNSeven Hills Realty 0.21 6 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.91 (3.40) 8.39 
ACRAcres Commercial Realty(0.19)12 per month 1.69 (0.02) 2.95 (2.96) 14.67 
MDVModiv Inc 0.03 9 per month 0.95  0.04  2.23 (2.05) 7.01 
RMAXRe Max Holding 0.12 10 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.56 (4.11) 14.02 
STRSStratus Properties(0.32)9 per month 1.90  0.13  5.07 (4.41) 17.98 
ONLOrion Office Reit(0.09)6 per month 0.00 (0.03) 3.90 (3.83) 11.03 
CHCIComstock Holding Companies(0.36)9 per month 0.00 (0.08) 6.31 (5.82) 25.16 
SUNSSunrise Realty Trust(0.07)12 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.64 (2.47) 9.22 
SRGSeritage Growth Properties(0.02)8 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.37 (4.30) 12.77 
JFBJFB Construction Holdings 0.50 9 per month 5.31  0.16  13.60 (9.04) 33.08 

Other Forecasting Options for Strawberry Fields

For every potential investor in Strawberry, whether a beginner or expert, Strawberry Fields' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Strawberry Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Strawberry. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Strawberry Fields' price trends.

Strawberry Fields Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Strawberry Fields stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Strawberry Fields could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Strawberry Fields by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Strawberry Fields Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Strawberry Fields stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Strawberry Fields shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Strawberry Fields stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Strawberry Fields REIT entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Strawberry Fields Risk Indicators

The analysis of Strawberry Fields' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Strawberry Fields' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting strawberry stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Strawberry Fields

The number of cover stories for Strawberry Fields depends on current market conditions and Strawberry Fields' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Strawberry Fields is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Strawberry Fields' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Strawberry Fields Short Properties

Strawberry Fields' future price predictability will typically decrease when Strawberry Fields' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Strawberry Fields REIT often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Strawberry Fields' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Strawberry Fields' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments48.4 M

Additional Tools for Strawberry Stock Analysis

When running Strawberry Fields' price analysis, check to measure Strawberry Fields' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Strawberry Fields is operating at the current time. Most of Strawberry Fields' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Strawberry Fields' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Strawberry Fields' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Strawberry Fields to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.