Smith Wesson Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SWBI Stock | USD 10.13 0.15 1.50% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Wesson Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 10.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.27. Smith Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smith Wesson's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of January 2026 The relative strength index (RSI) of Smith Wesson's share price is above 80 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 90
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.25 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.28 | Wall Street Target Price 13.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.02 |
Using Smith Wesson hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smith Wesson Brands from the perspective of Smith Wesson response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Smith Wesson using Smith Wesson's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Smith using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Smith Wesson's stock price.
Smith Wesson Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Smith Wesson's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Smith. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Smith Wesson stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 9.2343 | Short Percent 0.0633 | Short Ratio 3.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 3 M | 50 Day MA 9.5548 |
Smith Wesson Brands Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Smith Wesson's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Smith. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Smith can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Smith Wesson Brands. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Smith Wesson's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Smith Wesson.
Smith Wesson Implied Volatility | 0.73 |
Smith Wesson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Smith Wesson Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Smith Wesson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Smith Wesson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Smith Wesson's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Wesson Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 10.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.27. Smith Wesson after-hype prediction price | USD 10.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Wesson to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Smith Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Smith Wesson's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Smith Wesson's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Smith Wesson stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Smith Wesson's open interest, investors have to compare it to Smith Wesson's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Smith Wesson is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Smith. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Smith Wesson Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Wesson Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Wesson Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 10.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Wesson's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smith Wesson Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smith Wesson | Smith Wesson Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smith Wesson Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smith Wesson's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith Wesson's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.62 and 13.66, respectively. We have considered Smith Wesson's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Wesson stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Wesson stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0452 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.191 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0195 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.269 |
Predictive Modules for Smith Wesson
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Wesson Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Smith Wesson
For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith Wesson's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith Wesson's price trends.Smith Wesson Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smith Wesson stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smith Wesson could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smith Wesson by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith Wesson Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Smith Wesson's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Smith Wesson's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Wesson Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith Wesson stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith Wesson shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith Wesson stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith Wesson Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Smith Wesson Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smith Wesson's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith Wesson's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Variance | 11.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Smith Wesson Brands offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Smith Wesson's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Smith Wesson Brands Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Smith Wesson Brands Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Wesson to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Wesson. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Wesson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.21 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Smith Wesson Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Wesson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Wesson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Wesson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Wesson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Wesson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Wesson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Wesson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.