SWK Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SWKHL Stock | 25.64 0.00 0.00% |
SWK Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although SWK Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of SWK Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of SWK Holdings fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of SWK Holdings' stock price is about 65. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling SWK, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using SWK Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SWK Holdings from the perspective of SWK Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SWK Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 25.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.48. SWK Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 25.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SWK Holdings to cross-verify your projections. SWK Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SWK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SWK using various technical indicators. When you analyze SWK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SWK Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SWK Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 25.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SWK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SWK Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SWK Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SWK Holdings | SWK Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SWK Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SWK Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SWK Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.42 and 25.86, respectively. We have considered SWK Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SWK Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SWK Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.4816 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.016 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0414 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.483 |
Predictive Modules for SWK Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SWK Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SWK Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SWK Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SWK Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SWK Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SWK Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SWK Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SWK Holdings' historical news coverage. SWK Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.42 and 25.86, respectively. We have considered SWK Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SWK Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SWK Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
SWK Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SWK Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SWK Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SWK Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 19 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.64 | 25.64 | 0.00 |
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SWK Holdings Hype Timeline
SWK Holdings is at this time traded for 25.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. SWK is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 200.0%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on SWK Holdings is about 2475.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.64. The company last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SWK Holdings to cross-verify your projections.SWK Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SWK Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SWK Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how SWK Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SWK Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ETHM | Dynamix | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.43) | 0.29 | (0.39) | 1.16 | |
| SOCA | Solarius Capital Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.11 | (0.57) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.79 | |
| INV | Innventure | (0.07) | 10 per month | 7.12 | 0.07 | 17.85 | (12.34) | 43.34 | |
| OXSQ | Oxford Square Capital | 0.03 | 8 per month | 1.23 | 0.09 | 3.87 | (2.20) | 8.59 | |
| MKLY | McKinley Acquisition | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.55) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.70 | |
| MCGA | MCGA | 0.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.43) | 0.29 | (0.68) | 1.45 | |
| NOAH | Noah Holdings | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.45 | (0.03) | 3.22 | (2.20) | 8.29 | |
| EARN | Ellington Residential Mortgage | (0.07) | 7 per month | 1.07 | 0.09 | 2.22 | (1.76) | 5.88 | |
| MCGAU | MCGAU | 0.08 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.47) | 0.39 | (0.58) | 1.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for SWK Holdings
For every potential investor in SWK, whether a beginner or expert, SWK Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SWK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SWK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SWK Holdings' price trends.SWK Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SWK Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SWK Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SWK Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SWK Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SWK Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SWK Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SWK Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SWK Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SWK Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of SWK Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SWK Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting swk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1628 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.219 | |||
| Variance | 0.048 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0734 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SWK Holdings
The number of cover stories for SWK Holdings depends on current market conditions and SWK Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SWK Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SWK Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SWK Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy SWK Stock please use our How to buy in SWK Stock guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Specialized Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SWK Holdings. If investors know SWK will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SWK Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of SWK Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SWK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SWK Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SWK Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SWK Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SWK Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SWK Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SWK Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SWK Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.