Switch Metals Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SWT Stock | 12.20 0.30 2.40% |
Switch Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Switch Metals stock prices and determine the direction of Switch Metals Plc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Switch Metals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Switch Metals' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Switch Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Switch Metals Plc from the perspective of Switch Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Switch Metals Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 12.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.32. Switch Metals after-hype prediction price | GBX 12.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Switch |
Switch Metals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Switch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Switch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Switch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Switch Metals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Switch Metals Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 12.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Switch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Switch Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Switch Metals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Switch Metals | Switch Metals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Switch Metals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Switch Metals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Switch Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.01 and 16.41, respectively. We have considered Switch Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Switch Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Switch Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2493 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0349 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2183 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.3177 |
Predictive Modules for Switch Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Switch Metals Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Switch Metals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Switch Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Switch Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Switch Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Switch Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Switch Metals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Switch Metals' historical news coverage. Switch Metals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.00 and 16.40, respectively. We have considered Switch Metals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Switch Metals is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Switch Metals Plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Switch Metals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Switch Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Switch Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Switch Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 7.15 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.20 | 12.20 | 0.00 |
|
Switch Metals Hype Timeline
Switch Metals Plc is at this time traded for 12.20on London Exchange of UK. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 7.15. Switch is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Switch Metals is about 19.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.35. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 0.04. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Switch Metals to cross-verify your projections.Switch Metals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Switch Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Switch Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how Switch Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Switch Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BHP | BHP Group Limited | (7.00) | 4 per month | 1.21 | 0.14 | 2.99 | (2.23) | 6.53 | |
| RIO | Rio Tinto PLC | 89.00 | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.22 | 2.27 | (2.04) | 7.73 | |
| GLEN | Glencore PLC | (3.10) | 6 per month | 1.70 | 0.18 | 3.50 | (2.32) | 16.63 | |
| AAL | Anglo American PLC | 100.00 | 5 per month | 1.60 | 0.14 | 3.36 | (2.76) | 11.03 | |
| S32 | South32 | 3.80 | 5 per month | 0.99 | 0.30 | 3.73 | (2.10) | 9.73 | |
| TIN | Cornish Metals plc | 0.00 | 4 per month | 1.53 | 0.26 | 6.41 | (3.95) | 17.21 | |
| SOLG | SolGold PLC | (0.50) | 9 per month | 1.83 | 0.18 | 5.60 | (3.54) | 28.69 | |
| GFM | Griffin Mining | 9.00 | 5 per month | 1.32 | 0.25 | 6.78 | (3.17) | 12.83 | |
| ECOR | Ecora Resources PLC | 3.78 | 3 per month | 1.80 | 0.24 | 4.10 | (3.59) | 11.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Switch Metals
For every potential investor in Switch, whether a beginner or expert, Switch Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Switch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Switch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Switch Metals' price trends.Switch Metals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Switch Metals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Switch Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Switch Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Switch Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Switch Metals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Switch Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Switch Metals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Switch Metals Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9176.28 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.60) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.30) |
Switch Metals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Switch Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Switch Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting switch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Variance | 16.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 37.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Switch Metals
The number of cover stories for Switch Metals depends on current market conditions and Switch Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Switch Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Switch Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Other Information on Investing in Switch Stock
Switch Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Switch Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Switch with respect to the benefits of owning Switch Metals security.