Tucows Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TCX Stock | USD 23.76 0.81 3.30% |
Tucows Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Tucows' share price is at 56. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Tucows, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.902 | Wall Street Target Price 150.01 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 |
Using Tucows hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tucows Inc from the perspective of Tucows response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tucows using Tucows' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tucows using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tucows' stock price.
Tucows Implied Volatility | 0.92 |
Tucows' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tucows Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tucows' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tucows stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tucows' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tucows Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 24.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.26. Tucows after-hype prediction price | USD 23.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tucows to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tucows contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tucows Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0575% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Tucows trading at USD 23.76, that is roughly USD 0.0137 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tucows' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tucows Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.92%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Tucows Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tucows' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tucows' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tucows stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tucows' open interest, investors have to compare it to Tucows' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tucows is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tucows. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Tucows Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tucows price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tucows using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tucows charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Tucows' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-03-31 | Previous Quarter 52 M | Current Value 54.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 19.7 M |
Tucows Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tucows Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 24.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tucows Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tucows' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tucows Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tucows | Tucows Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tucows Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tucows' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tucows' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.07 and 27.27, respectively. We have considered Tucows' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tucows stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tucows stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4593 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5617 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0257 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.2619 |
Predictive Modules for Tucows
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tucows Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tucows' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tucows After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tucows at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tucows or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tucows, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tucows Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tucows' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tucows' historical news coverage. Tucows' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.86 and 27.06, respectively. We have considered Tucows' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tucows is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tucows Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tucows Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tucows is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tucows backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tucows, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 3.10 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.76 | 23.96 | 0.84 |
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Tucows Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Tucows Inc is traded for 23.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Tucows is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 23.96 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.84%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on Tucows is about 14090.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.75. The company reported the last year's revenue of 362.27 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (109.86 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 136.14 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tucows to cross-verify your projections.Tucows Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tucows' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tucows' future price movements. Getting to know how Tucows' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tucows may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARBE | Arbe Robotics | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 9.71 | (8.16) | 45.74 | |
| DFDV | DeFi Development Corp | 0.42 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 9.26 | (13.42) | 38.88 | |
| MRT | Marti Technologies | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.14 | (4.19) | 20.77 | |
| STEM | Stem Inc | 0.05 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 12.69 | (11.49) | 41.74 | |
| BKKT | Bakkt Holdings | (0.44) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 12.23 | (13.07) | 55.99 | |
| WALD | Waldencast Acquisition Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 4.15 | (0.01) | 9.57 | (6.49) | 33.33 | |
| KLTR | Kaltura | (0.07) | 8 per month | 3.90 | (0.01) | 8.16 | (6.70) | 32.77 | |
| SATL | Satellogic V | 0.39 | 5 per month | 5.20 | 0.16 | 16.84 | (8.22) | 26.31 | |
| IMMR | Immersion | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.57 | (3.90) | 22.47 | |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group | (0.62) | 9 per month | 3.96 | 0.07 | 7.81 | (6.94) | 23.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tucows
For every potential investor in Tucows, whether a beginner or expert, Tucows' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tucows Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tucows. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tucows' price trends.Tucows Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tucows stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tucows could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tucows by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tucows Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tucows stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tucows shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tucows stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tucows Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.81) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.89 |
Tucows Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tucows' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tucows' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tucows stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Variance | 9.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tucows
The number of cover stories for Tucows depends on current market conditions and Tucows' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tucows is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tucows' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tucows Short Properties
Tucows' future price predictability will typically decrease when Tucows' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tucows Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tucows' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tucows' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56.9 M |
Additional Tools for Tucows Stock Analysis
When running Tucows' price analysis, check to measure Tucows' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tucows is operating at the current time. Most of Tucows' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tucows' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tucows' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tucows to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.