Templeton Dragon Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TDF Fund | USD 11.84 0.10 0.85% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Templeton Dragon Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 11.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.53. Templeton Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Templeton Dragon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 22nd of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Templeton Dragon's share price is at 59. This usually implies that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Templeton Dragon, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Templeton Dragon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Templeton Dragon Closed from the perspective of Templeton Dragon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Templeton Dragon Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 11.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.53. Templeton Dragon after-hype prediction price | USD 11.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Templeton |
Templeton Dragon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Templeton price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Templeton using various technical indicators. When you analyze Templeton charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Templeton Dragon Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Templeton Dragon Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 11.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Templeton Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Templeton Dragon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Templeton Dragon Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Templeton Dragon | Templeton Dragon Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Templeton Dragon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Templeton Dragon's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Templeton Dragon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.89 and 12.83, respectively. We have considered Templeton Dragon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Templeton Dragon fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Templeton Dragon fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0107 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0938 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0083 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.5338 |
Predictive Modules for Templeton Dragon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Templeton Dragon Closed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Templeton Dragon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Templeton Dragon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Templeton Dragon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Templeton Dragon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Templeton Dragon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Templeton Dragon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Templeton Dragon's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Templeton Dragon's historical news coverage. Templeton Dragon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.87 and 12.81, respectively. We have considered Templeton Dragon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Templeton Dragon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Templeton Dragon Closed is based on 3 months time horizon.
Templeton Dragon Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Templeton Dragon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Templeton Dragon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Templeton Dragon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.84 | 11.84 | 0.00 |
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Templeton Dragon Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Templeton Dragon Closed is traded for 11.84. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Templeton is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Templeton Dragon is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.84. About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.36. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Templeton Dragon Closed recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.89. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of August 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Templeton Dragon to cross-verify your projections.Templeton Dragon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Templeton Dragon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Templeton Dragon's future price movements. Getting to know how Templeton Dragon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Templeton Dragon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMF | Templeton Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.68 | 0.17 | 2.06 | (1.60) | 5.66 | |
| TEI | Templeton Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.52 | 0.10 | 1.69 | (1.20) | 5.00 | |
| CAF | Morgan Stanley China | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | 0.06 | 2.28 | (1.77) | 6.75 | |
| DBL | Doubleline Opportunistic Credit | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 0.60 | (0.53) | 2.05 | |
| JCE | Nuveen Core Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | (0.06) | 1.28 | (1.19) | 3.55 | |
| SPE | Special Opportunities Closed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | (0.04) | 0.76 | (0.78) | 4.57 | |
| JOF | Japan Smaller Capitalization | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.59 | 0.08 | 1.39 | (1.18) | 4.25 | |
| RFI | Cohen Steers Total | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 0.98 | (1.09) | 2.61 | |
| JGH | Nuveen Global High | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | (0.21) | 0.80 | (0.64) | 1.94 | |
| MXF | Mexico Closed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.66 | 0.15 | 1.72 | (1.00) | 4.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for Templeton Dragon
For every potential investor in Templeton, whether a beginner or expert, Templeton Dragon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Templeton Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Templeton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Templeton Dragon's price trends.Templeton Dragon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Templeton Dragon fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Templeton Dragon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Templeton Dragon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Templeton Dragon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Templeton Dragon fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Templeton Dragon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Templeton Dragon fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Templeton Dragon Closed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Templeton Dragon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Templeton Dragon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Templeton Dragon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting templeton fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7534 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7577 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9675 | |||
| Variance | 0.936 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6811 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.574 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Templeton Dragon
The number of cover stories for Templeton Dragon depends on current market conditions and Templeton Dragon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Templeton Dragon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Templeton Dragon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Templeton Fund
Templeton Dragon financial ratios help investors to determine whether Templeton Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Templeton with respect to the benefits of owning Templeton Dragon security.
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