Templeton Dragon Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

TDF Fund  USD 8.34  0.21  2.46%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Templeton Dragon Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 8.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.58. Templeton Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Templeton Dragon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Templeton Dragon polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Templeton Dragon Closed as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Templeton Dragon Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Templeton Dragon Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 8.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Templeton Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Templeton Dragon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Templeton Dragon Fund Forecast Pattern

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Templeton Dragon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Templeton Dragon's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Templeton Dragon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.56 and 10.84, respectively. We have considered Templeton Dragon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.34
8.20
Expected Value
10.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Templeton Dragon fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Templeton Dragon fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3925
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.321
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0369
SAESum of the absolute errors19.5804
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Templeton Dragon historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Templeton Dragon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Templeton Dragon Closed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Templeton Dragon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.918.5511.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.848.4811.12
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Templeton Dragon

For every potential investor in Templeton, whether a beginner or expert, Templeton Dragon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Templeton Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Templeton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Templeton Dragon's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Templeton Dragon Closed Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Templeton Dragon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Templeton Dragon's current price.

Templeton Dragon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Templeton Dragon fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Templeton Dragon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Templeton Dragon fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Templeton Dragon Closed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Templeton Dragon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Templeton Dragon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Templeton Dragon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting templeton fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Templeton Fund

Templeton Dragon financial ratios help investors to determine whether Templeton Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Templeton with respect to the benefits of owning Templeton Dragon security.
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