Thornburg Core Mutual Fund Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| THCAX Fund | 10.50 0.05 0.48% |
Thornburg |
Thornburg Core 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Thornburg Core Plus on the next trading day is expected to be 10.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thornburg Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thornburg Core's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Thornburg Core Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
Thornburg Core Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Thornburg Core's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thornburg Core's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.08 and 10.73, respectively. We have considered Thornburg Core's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thornburg Core mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thornburg Core mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 76.7791 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0723 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0897 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.679 |
Predictive Modules for Thornburg Core
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thornburg Core Plus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Thornburg Core. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Thornburg Core's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Thornburg Core's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Thornburg Core Plus.Other Forecasting Options for Thornburg Core
For every potential investor in Thornburg, whether a beginner or expert, Thornburg Core's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thornburg Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thornburg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thornburg Core's price trends.Thornburg Core Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thornburg Core mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thornburg Core could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thornburg Core by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Thornburg Core Plus Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Thornburg Core's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Thornburg Core's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Thornburg Core Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thornburg Core mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thornburg Core shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thornburg Core mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Thornburg Core Plus entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.43 |
Thornburg Core Risk Indicators
The analysis of Thornburg Core's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thornburg Core's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thornburg mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2419 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3284 | |||
| Variance | 0.1078 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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