Toll Brothers Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TLK Stock | EUR 160.75 3.80 2.42% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Toll Brothers on the next trading day is expected to be 160.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.74. Toll Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Toll Brothers' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Toll |
Toll Brothers Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Toll Brothers on the next trading day is expected to be 160.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20, mean absolute percentage error of 11.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toll Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toll Brothers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Toll Brothers Stock Forecast Pattern
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Toll Brothers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Toll Brothers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toll Brothers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 158.44 and 163.06, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toll Brothers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toll Brothers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6764 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5993 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1957 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 131.74 |
Predictive Modules for Toll Brothers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toll Brothers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Toll Brothers
For every potential investor in Toll, whether a beginner or expert, Toll Brothers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toll Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toll. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toll Brothers' price trends.Toll Brothers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toll Brothers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toll Brothers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toll Brothers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toll Brothers Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Toll Brothers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Toll Brothers' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Toll Brothers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toll Brothers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toll Brothers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toll Brothers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toll Brothers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Toll Brothers Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toll Brothers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toll Brothers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toll stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.66) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Toll Stock
When determining whether Toll Brothers is a strong investment it is important to analyze Toll Brothers' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Toll Brothers' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Toll Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toll Brothers to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Toll Stock please use our How to Invest in Toll Brothers guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.