Tilray Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TLRY Stock | USD 7.62 0.23 2.93% |
Tilray Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Tilray's share price is approaching 37. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Tilray, making its price go up or down. Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0152 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.29) | Wall Street Target Price 11.825 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.031 |
Using Tilray hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tilray Inc from the perspective of Tilray response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tilray using Tilray's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tilray using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tilray's stock price.
Tilray Short Interest
An investor who is long Tilray may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Tilray and may potentially protect profits, hedge Tilray with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.9506 | Short Percent 0.1312 | Short Ratio 0.99 | Shares Short Prior Month 16.5 M | 50 Day MA 9.5024 |
Tilray Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tilray Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 9.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.51.Tilray Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Tilray's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Tilray. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tilray can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tilray Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Tilray's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Tilray.
Tilray Implied Volatility | 1.23 |
Tilray's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tilray Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tilray's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tilray stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tilray's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tilray Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 9.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.51. Tilray after-hype prediction price | USD 8.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tilray contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tilray Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0769% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Tilray trading at USD 7.62, that is roughly USD 0.005858 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tilray's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tilray Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Tilray Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tilray's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tilray's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tilray stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tilray's open interest, investors have to compare it to Tilray's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tilray is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tilray. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Tilray Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tilray price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tilray using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tilray charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Tilray's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-11-30 | Previous Quarter 363.8 M | Current Value 344.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 168.2 M |
Tilray Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tilray Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 9.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tilray Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tilray's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tilray Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tilray | Tilray Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tilray Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tilray's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tilray's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.59 and 17.95, respectively. We have considered Tilray's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tilray stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tilray stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4035 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8773 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0904 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.5129 |
Predictive Modules for Tilray
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tilray Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tilray After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tilray at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tilray or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tilray, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tilray Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tilray's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tilray's historical news coverage. Tilray's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.40 and 16.69, respectively. We have considered Tilray's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tilray is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tilray Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tilray Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tilray is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tilray backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tilray, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 8.68 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.62 | 8.01 | 2.04 |
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Tilray Hype Timeline
Tilray Inc is at this time traded for 7.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Tilray is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 8.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 2.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.56%. The volatility of related hype on Tilray is about 4451.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.73. Tilray Inc currently holds 451.09 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.14, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray to cross-verify your projections.Tilray Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tilray's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tilray's future price movements. Getting to know how Tilray's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tilray may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVO | Evotec SE ADR | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.02 | (4.73) | 17.10 | |
| ALVO | Alvotech | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.89 | (6.38) | 37.32 | |
| HROW | Harrow Health | 1.14 | 8 per month | 2.90 | 0.03 | 7.65 | (4.79) | 21.82 | |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health | 1.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.47 | (4.49) | 12.56 | |
| NEOG | Neogen | (0.25) | 10 per month | 2.03 | 0.17 | 5.96 | (3.70) | 34.17 | |
| DVAX | Dynavax Technologies | 0.03 | 11 per month | 0.66 | 0.13 | 2.76 | (1.53) | 39.08 | |
| AMPH | Amphastar P | (0.79) | 9 per month | 2.19 | 0.02 | 3.98 | (3.98) | 15.04 | |
| IMNM | Immunome | (0.26) | 12 per month | 3.81 | 0.16 | 7.87 | (5.33) | 31.45 | |
| MAZE | Maze Therapeutics Common | 1.21 | 8 per month | 2.60 | 0.16 | 6.61 | (4.37) | 16.60 | |
| NTLA | Intellia Therapeutics | (0.13) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.12 | (8.64) | 42.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tilray
For every potential investor in Tilray, whether a beginner or expert, Tilray's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tilray Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tilray. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tilray's price trends.Tilray Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tilray stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tilray could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tilray by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tilray Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tilray stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tilray shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tilray stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tilray Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tilray Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tilray's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tilray's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tilray stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.96 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.34 | |||
| Variance | 69.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tilray
The number of cover stories for Tilray depends on current market conditions and Tilray's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tilray is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tilray's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tilray Short Properties
Tilray's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tilray's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tilray Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tilray's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tilray's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 351.8 M |
Additional Tools for Tilray Stock Analysis
When running Tilray's price analysis, check to measure Tilray's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tilray is operating at the current time. Most of Tilray's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tilray's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tilray's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tilray to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.