POSTNL Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| TNTC Stock | EUR 1.17 0.01 0.85% |
POSTNL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of POSTNL's stock price is slightly above 66. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling POSTNL, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using POSTNL hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of POSTNL from the perspective of POSTNL response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of POSTNL on the next trading day is expected to be 1.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.17. POSTNL after-hype prediction price | EUR 1.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
POSTNL |
POSTNL Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine POSTNL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for POSTNL using various technical indicators. When you analyze POSTNL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
POSTNL Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of POSTNL on the next trading day is expected to be 1.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict POSTNL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that POSTNL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
POSTNL Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest POSTNL | POSTNL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
POSTNL Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting POSTNL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. POSTNL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 2.82, respectively. We have considered POSTNL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of POSTNL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent POSTNL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5365 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.019 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.175 |
Predictive Modules for POSTNL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as POSTNL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.POSTNL After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of POSTNL at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in POSTNL or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of POSTNL, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
POSTNL Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting POSTNL's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on POSTNL's historical news coverage. POSTNL's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 2.84, respectively. We have considered POSTNL's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
POSTNL is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of POSTNL is based on 3 months time horizon.
POSTNL Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as POSTNL is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading POSTNL backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with POSTNL, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.17 | 1.17 | 0.00 |
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POSTNL Hype Timeline
POSTNL is at this time traded for 1.17on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. POSTNL is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.39%. %. The volatility of related hype on POSTNL is about 2997.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.19. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of August 1970. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of POSTNL to cross-verify your projections.POSTNL Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to POSTNL's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict POSTNL's future price movements. Getting to know how POSTNL's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how POSTNL may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 3I7 | Westshore Terminals Investment | 0.40 | 2 per month | 0.85 | 0.18 | 1.95 | (1.96) | 4.43 | |
| GUG | Guangdong Investment Limited | 0.00 | 5 per month | 1.74 | (0.01) | 2.86 | (2.78) | 8.12 | |
| SI3 | SEI INVESTMENTS | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.65 | 0.01 | 1.45 | (1.38) | 5.63 | |
| G4A | GEAR4MUSIC LS 10 | 0.00 | 1 per month | 2.65 | (0.01) | 5.52 | (4.02) | 22.08 | |
| 5NU | CapitaLand Investment Limited | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.15 | 2.20 | (1.71) | 7.51 | |
| I43 | Jacquet Metal Service | (0.02) | 1 per month | 1.43 | 0.15 | 6.26 | (2.72) | 11.57 | |
| DNN | Strategic Investments AS | (0.01) | 7 per month | 2.43 | 0.07 | 5.92 | (4.12) | 33.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for POSTNL
For every potential investor in POSTNL, whether a beginner or expert, POSTNL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. POSTNL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in POSTNL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying POSTNL's price trends.POSTNL Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with POSTNL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of POSTNL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing POSTNL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
POSTNL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how POSTNL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading POSTNL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying POSTNL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify POSTNL entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.19 |
POSTNL Risk Indicators
The analysis of POSTNL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in POSTNL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting postnl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for POSTNL
The number of cover stories for POSTNL depends on current market conditions and POSTNL's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that POSTNL is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about POSTNL's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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POSTNL Short Properties
POSTNL's future price predictability will typically decrease when POSTNL's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of POSTNL often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential POSTNL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. POSTNL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 502.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -22 M |
Additional Tools for POSTNL Stock Analysis
When running POSTNL's price analysis, check to measure POSTNL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy POSTNL is operating at the current time. Most of POSTNL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of POSTNL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move POSTNL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of POSTNL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.